Trendlines

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(click images to enlarge charts)

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The first three charts above show e-mini futures contracts for the S&P 500 (ES), the NASDAQ 100 (NQ), and the Dow 30 Industrials (YM).

In each case, we see a short-term countertrend rally in progress from a stop sweep reversal under the February lows.  To officially break the downtrends and take control of the macro trend, the bulls need to eventually take out those descending red trendlines labeled ‘ST’.

There is a clear lower high/lower low construct at present—but the VST/ST rally continues above the S&T short-term primary trend line, and we just have to see where it goes and adjust trend biases as they are flipped.

The last chart is the intraday ES showing the location of the ST trend channel and overhead resistance.  The bulls remain in control above the S&T short-term primary trendline and that would be the first place that bears could start to get interested again, if it were to be taken out—but ultimately, the bears would need to break through the bottom of the light green channel to resume the downtrend.  Eventually, price will challenge one of those two channels, and we should get a hint then as to which side is in control of the macro trend.

Ideal ES trades here (in my opinion) in a mixed trend environment on a countertrend rally remain IT short < 1095 (partials > 1031), LT short < 1077 (partials > 1031), ST long > 1065 and VST long from 1031.75.

…my .02