Let’s take a look at where things currently stand with the broad market by using the S&P 500 Futures Options as a proxy…
What is obvious from a quick glance at the screen capture above from Stops and Targets is that we remain in an ongoing and powerful bull market…
The last price is above all three stop/reverse lines and short-term > intermediate and intermediate > long-term, so we know this is a fully-trending bull market. Trends are up +30%, +11.75%, and + 1.45% respectively. The S&P 500 Futures are up 34.7% since the Bottom Spotter signal on Election Day in 2016.
What is perhaps not so obvious at first glance is just HOW powerful and UNUSUAL this market rally during the Trump Administration has been…
The chart above shows monthly bars of the S&P 500 Futures since it’s inception in 1997. In twenty years of trading we have never seen anything before like what has happened in the last 15 months. Let’s zoom in on those monthly bars for a closer look…
In the past 15 months there have been 14 positive closes, including 10 in a row to present! The ONLY negative close was a doji bar in March of 2017 with an open of 2360.25 and a close of 2358 for a paltry -2.25 points. That is simply incredible.
This is all happening (in my opinion) because we have an administration that is aggressively enacting policy that is business-friendly and pro-America. The Executive Branch has been doing an incredible job–especially considering that it is fighting against resistance from almost everyone in the global communist cabal. I don’t think most people have any idea just how monumental the changes have been… and are yet to be if the pathetic anti-American ‘resistance’ can be finally swept aside.
‘Big things’ will be happening soon, if the scuttlebutt from the darker reaches of the Internet proves to be accurate. Big things can potentially roil markets.
Zooming in to weekly bars we can clearly see the stop sweep/reversal paradigm that has been in place since the market bottom in 2009. We can also see that it has been quite awhile since the last stop sweep/reversal (at point number 9 on the chart above). As a matter of fact, the last stop sweep/reversal happened on Election Night in November of 2016 at the last Bottom Spotter signal… 15 months ago.
Since the market is at new all-time highs there is no historical resistance above –so now we use projections to find a point where the machines might be pointed. On the chart above I have drawn in a trident channel that has tracked very well. Note that we are nearing the rising top rail of that channel now, which is currently near the 2735 area. So this post is an early head’s up and we’ll see what happens if/when price gets there.
The daily bar chart above shows all of the current support levels for the S&P 500 Futures. It’s all good for bulls so long as price remains above the short-term stop/reverse line, which is presently at 2680.75. The first counter-trend sell signal would come in on a move under confirmed support at 2698.
The chart above is another indication of how powerful the recent rally has been. We have not had a touch of intermediate support since 22-Aug-17 and the few shallow pullbacks since have been only short-term in nature. And of course, long-term support hasn’t been touched in 15 months.
Let’s keep an eye on that trident channel top rail that is shown on the weekly bar chart and see if anything happens.
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