Market Update

To my eye this market has been stuck in a rut and doing nothing terribly interesting nor particularly noteworthy for several months.  Today, as we finally get an upside breakout in the big range, I thought it might be fun to take a look at the Big Picture via the three major timeframes and to maybe toss out another rant about what I think has been causing this multi-month compression and malaise.

 

First, the rant…

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Longtime readers here know that I am an early supporter and big fan of the President.  This guy stepped away from the ultimate billionaire lifestyle to take a thankless and extremely difficult job for NO PAY! …and never in the history of this Republic has anyone been more abused and mistreated than him.  Yet, each day he gets up and continues to try to make this a better country by making pro-American policy decisions and striking deals that truly improve the lives of average Americans.

It should be clear to most by now that the our government, the dinosaur media, and the entertainment industry have all been thoroughly compromised by anti-American entities.  One doesn’t have to venture far to connect the dots and end up staring straight at the Communist Chinese as the likely top-level protagonists.

In a quote often attributed to Joseph Stalin “When it comes time to hang the capitalists, they will vie with each other for the rope contract.”  So true! …and that is the path we have been on for several decades!  However, along comes an amazing man who has bravely confronted the massive scheme to sell out the country–and he threatens to not only cut off the cash flow for bribes  (largely by initiating a brilliant tariff strategy that the woefully corrupt US Congress cannot touch) but also threatens to expose the very network of traitors who have been selling out America.

The Globalist Socialists, who are all motivated by money at their sinister greedy cores, have been parasitically feeding off of the United States for decades.  Their plan was to drain the host of life completely and then swoop in with their glorious (for them and certainly NOT for us) ‘New World Order’ that Bush the Elder started to usher in during his installment after the last ‘accidental President’ and outsider, Ronald Reagan.  They successfully installed an uninterrupted succession of stooges and all was going exactly to plan until Donald Trump stepped in and beat the most hatable candidate the NWO could possibly put forward.  It was her hubris, arrogance, and incessant bullying that enabled Trump to be miraculously elected against a completely stacked deck.

The election of 2016 has sent shock waves through the evil empire and they have spared no effort in activating (and ultimately exposing) their bought and paid for agents and assets.  So many ‘conservative’ pundits and politicians have had the mask ripped right off of them as their masters demand that they stop Trump.  NONE of it is working.  President Trump continues to out maneuver and out-smart them.  The most recent example is the middle-east strategy that has extracted US troops, killed the top ISIS threats, taken the oil, and left the Russians holding the bag standing between ancient and never-ending Sunni/Shia warfare stupidity.  For example, how ridiculous do those concerned and outraged ‘Republican’ critics from last week look now after President Trump pulled off his latest brilliant maneuver?

The globalists have a real conundrum when it comes to dealing with President Trump.  They have assumed control of many if not most multi-national corporations often via lax mergers and acquisitions accommodated by corrupt public officials.  The wildly successful tariff implementations by President Trump have totally reversed their plan of siphoning wealth away from the US into a global rush to invest back into the US.  These corporations are in essence trapped into repatriating capital investment back into the US and away from China predominantly.  The more China bleeds jobs and precious hard capital, the less able they are to buy influence around the world…and also, the more hostile average Chinese citizens will become toward the current communist regime as living conditions deteriorate and prospects diminish.

As China and other hostile economies contract they are forced to weaken their currency in an attempt to offset the tariff cost to stay competitive in trade volume.  In essence, Trump has brilliantly exported inflation to the enemy economies and America is adeptly side-stepping what ‘leading economists’ said would be rampant price inflation as those import tariffs are enacted.  To the chagrin of his enemies, his tariff policies are proving to be wildly successful, and to put it bluntly, America’s primary nemesis, China, is totally screwed.

Ironically, the global socialists would love nothing more than to crash the American economy to weaken Trump’s support, which is his number one triumph–but they can’t!  There is currently no other place for capital to flow to seek a better return, so try as they might–they just can’t make this incredible economy sink without simultaneously hurting themselves.

It is my opinion that the sideways action we have seen for the past many months has been a mass paralysis by major market participants as everyone waits to see if any of the various ridiculous charades employed by an increasingly desperate opposition will stick.  This could be a race by them to try to remove president Trump (by any means possible) before the good guys regain control of the DOJ, FBI and CIA and the heinous acts of selling out America are exposed.  The ones screaming the loudest against Trump are likely the ones with the most to lose when the facts eventually come out about the massive plot to take down America.

As I said in a post here long ago when I predicted Trump would be elected President shortly after he declared his candidacy… this administration was never going to be dull, and the immense drama has certainly not disappointed thus far!

One last thought here… I was talking to a friend yesterday who was disturbed about the ridiculous tenor and hysteria of the ‘news and noise’ and I remembered something that a historian told me at Colonial Williamsburg many years ago… He said that over time things really haven’t changed all that much and never really do.  At the time of the American Revolution, for example, the public opinion was about 40% loyalists and 40% rebels (or patriots depending on your perspective).  That left 20% undecided.

Today, I think things are about the same.  There are 40% on one side and 40% on the other whose opinions and positions are fixed and absolutely unchangeable.  What is left are the incredibly insipid dolts ‘in the middle‘.  The battle we see playing out now in the media is not intended for the 80% who have already decided their loyalties–but rather, this is an all-out attempt to sway the 20% and if possible, to discourage turnout from the ‘wrong (in their opinion)’ 40%.  So relax, sit back and enjoy the show.  It’s all pretty darned entertaining when viewed from the proper perspective.  Just be sure to show up and vote when the time comes!

It is going to absolutely kill the Trump haters to see the new all-time highs in the market today on the news.  The globalists hate it too because it further strengthens the power of their nemesis, but ultimately they love money more than ideology and President Trump is in the process of bringing them back around to the right side with the proper carrot.  As a businessman and self-made billionaire, he truly understands how this works.  Donald Trump has always given prior enemies every opportunity to switch sides, but if they still persist–>then more often than not they will end up a bit like the ISIS dude in the tunnel in Syria last weekend… ripped to shreds and self-immolated by his own hand!  It’s really a thing of brilliance to behold, and the world has never seen anything quite like it.

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Okay, with my cathartic rant out of the way let’s take a quick peek at the ‘Big Picture’ market structure…

 

From Stops and Targets, we can see that the S&P 500 Futures have broken out to a new all-time high.

Take a peek at how close together and compressed those three stop/reverse lines are!  That is the result of months of sideways price action.

It would take very little to crash right back down through all of those to flip all three trend bearish–so keep a very wary eye on Top Spotters in case we get a run of the bear stops above the old range high  and then a hard reversal back down.  If something interesting happens, I’ll be sure to point it out here.

At any rate, it’s all good for bulls above those stop/reverse lines–> but potentially very serious if we get a stop sweep/reversal back down with massive numbers of spotter signals for confirmation.

It has been a great run from the last confirmed Bottom Spotter after last Christmas.  The broad market is up > 30% since!

 

 

 

 

The chart above uses monthly bars to illustrate the long-term timeframe.  Note the bounce from the VLT (very long-term) trendline back at Christmas.  That initial rally run stalled in May (sell in May and go away) and price has criss-crossed that high multiple times since.  Note that the game has been alternate stop-running in almost every month since.  It has been a brutal time for trend followers–but an absolutely great time for range traders.  The great news about S&T is that the counter-trend range envelope signals have been absolutely spot-on.

 

 

The chart above uses weekly bars to illustrate the intermediate time frame.

Note here that the weekly paradigm hard deck is presently located at 2,777.50.  The major bullish paradigm that has been in play since the 2009 bottom remains intact above that line.

If price continues to trade above 2,855 through the remainder of this week, the trailing stop hard deck line will move up to that level to lock in more gains on that trade.

 

 

 

The daily bar/range chart above adds the short-term timeframe, but also shows intermediate and long-term levels.

The major number in play right now is the all-time high breakout line at 3031.25!  A move back below that line would generate a counter-trend sell signal in all three timeframes–so that’s a biggie right now.  Counter-trend signals work great in a trading range–but if the market starts to trend again in the long term then the range traders will get run over, so be wary.

…my .02