We have a ST trendline resistance breakout working here as we watch to see if ES can push above the VST and ST range top at 2072.75. If that happens it would break the recent ST bearish pattern of shallow lower highs and lower lows.
The current upside run originated at the stop sweep/reversal play under 1990.75 that bottomed at 1983.25 on December 14th. There was an initial pullback to retest that stop sweep breakout level on December 18th (which also set up the current range top at 2072.75) and it has been a push higher to challenge, and now overcome, the trendline resistance drawn from the recent lower pivot high.
After today we have two more trading days left in 2015–and, interestingly, those will determine what the headlines say about the market gain (or loss) for the entire year! ES closed at 2020.25 (adjusted for continuous contract pricing) in 2014, so that is the year-end line in play.
The premium strangle maneuver that I pointed out going into OpEx is over now–so there is likely no reason for the pros to smack down any more upside breakout attempts. If I were pulling the levers, I think I might be tempted to blow through the bear stops at 2072.75 and then 2087.75 and slingshot toward the next IT resistance target at 2102.50 on that momentum. From there, new all-time highs above 2109.25 would be just around the corner–but first things first, and that means watching to see if the ST bearish trend of lower highs can be snapped with a push above 2072.75.
ES has been oscillating around the ST and IT primary trendiness (2004 and 2017.25) for months. With OpEx behind us–it could be time to finally move out of this boring range strangle–so head’s up here near 2072.75.