ES Update

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ES tagged IT resistance at 2126.25, to the penny, and is currently in a pullback from that line.  I think it is interesting that the pros stopped right at resistance, rather than taking out the resting stops just above.  That’s generally not a bearish sign when they do that.

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Apple guided down a bit last night on future earnings, which is a big reason for today’s gap down opening…

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The opening gap line is at 2114.50

Underneath, there isn’t much to shoot for until the top of ‘bear island’ at 2083.25.  Any bears who shorted after the opening gap on 6/26 and didn’t cover on the breakout at that line on 7/13 would be trapped on that ‘island’.  There would seem to be no reason for the pros to revisit that area under the line if the intent is to continue supporting this market higher at critical junctures, as has been the policy since 2009.

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With the recent pullback to 2034.25, the pros now have in place the next potential ‘higher low’ in the weekly roadmap paradigm that I have written about many times.  We need two more weeks plus the remainder of this one before that last higher low way down at 1946.25 can move up to 2034.25.

Remember, the 2009 Obama/ARRA market-rigging paradigm won’t end until/unless we see a break below the last higher low in this weekly bar sequence that does not immediately recover.

The next target lower is the top of the ideal entry zone at 2076.25, which lines up with the top of the old VST range at 2078.  All trends remain up > 2061, so this is so far just a garden variety ST pullback until/unless we start breaking support underneath.

…my .02

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