ES Update

Let’s take a quick end of day peek at the macro setup for ES as we watch this confirmed top spotter signal play out…

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Screen Shot 2015-03-10 at 3.18.44 PM

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On the monthly bars, we have an inside bar with a countertrend sell from the February close at 2102.75.  From a monthly perspective, no biggie here until/unless the February low of 1973.75 were to be taken out.  So far, we have a roughly 50% retracement of the February range.

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Screen Shot 2015-03-10 at 3.23.53 PM

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On the weekly bars we have a bearish lower high/lower low sequence underway.  Next stop target lower is under 2036.50–and the stop sweep/reversal number above is the prior week’s low at 2065.50, which is our current bull/bear line.

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Screen Shot 2015-03-10 at 3.27.33 PM

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Today’s action has brought us back to the trendline breakout level at 2048.50, which is the last place where momentum switched from bears to bulls.  So, in other words, the pros have now chased all bulls who bought the trendline breakout back to losses at this point, with position stop loss level for that breakout likely sitting just under the initial pullback low on 2/9 at 2036.50

..do you see where I am going with this yet?  😉

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Screen Shot 2015-03-10 at 3.33.28 PM

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Now, to really fine tune things we move into the hourly bar chart that shows how this has been a textbook decline hitting and then retracing the levels I have been pointing out in previous posts…

Next target underneath is the stop level at 2036.50.  That’s where I would go if I were pulling the levers.  If it gets there, then that will become the next stop sweep/reversal line with action bearish below but switching back to bullish above if the pros push into those stops and then cover into the selling.

Under 2036.50 is an open gap at 2023.25

The pros are squeezing the bulls now, and the first place that pressure would start to come off is on a move above the current stop sweep reversal line at 2065.50–otherwise, if we get another push down under 2036.50, that will become the next stop sweep/reversal line.

Bearish full position trailing stops for those playing the confirmed spotter are now moved down to just above the descending red trendline resistance, currently at about 2095, but covering would likely start on a move above 2065.50.

Spotter signals rock!

…my .02

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