ES Update

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We haven’t had a short-term pullback since October 15th.  The number that ES would need to get down to today to establish a minimal ST pivot low is 2049.75, and as I type that has now been reached.

That was quite a squeeze around the election–and with November options expiring last Friday, perhaps the pros will let this market trade a little now without incessantly propping the bid.

In the overnight session, ES was taken down to break the VST (very short term) support trendline and to first confirmed support at 2054, which was the top of the old VST range before the breakout.

That VST support line at 2054 will be the first area to watch here in early trading.

The key line above is the November daily bar close at 2066.25.  The previous monthly close is what many traders will use as a counter-trend (short) entry stop.  So long as price is trading below that line the bears are in business–but if the December monthly candle body turns white, then all bearish bets are off.

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Screen Shot 2014-12-01 at 9.52.11 AM

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The next key support under the minimum ST low target is at 2014.50 for both the ST and IT.

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Screen Shot 2014-12-01 at 10.04.45 AM

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The hourly bar chart above shows the key support and resistance levels.  We didn’t quite get to the top rail of the IT trident channel on the squeeze but did get close.  Lets watch and see how this engineered pullback goes here using the VST numbers I pointed out above (2054 support and 2066.25 resistance).

The pros likely had quite a payday on Friday as all those front month put options they sold during the pre-election takedown expired worthless.  If the bid propping is removed, we could get a trip down to the Stops and Targets ST and IT targets at 2014.50… the operative word being ‘if’.

…my .02

 

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