ES Update


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Okay, that’s what I was looking for…

Now we have a higher structural low in place at 1736.50.  That line now becomes the bull/bear line going forward.  The first primary trend cannot flip until/unless that lines is crossed–so underneath is where the sell stops are now congregating.

Getting kinda frothy now as the bears have been thoroughly demoralized–and remember what I said about that…no significant selling can transpire until the bears capitulate.  The VLT channel structures that I pointed out have been broken, so ES is floating in the ether here with no more immediate upside targets.  As resistance voids go, this is as big as they come.

But finding these tops is always tricky business and requires patience.  The first thing I would expect to see are unanimous spotter signals that confirm (and price must hold below the confirmation line).  The next thing we have to see is a counter-trend sell signal.  And lastly, the big one is the crossing of the first primary trend line, which is the first official paradigm shift.  Until those things start happening, though, all trends remain up > 1736.50 (or 1754.25 for those working in the VST timeframe).



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The hourly chart above shows the pertinent support levels–starting with the breakout at 1773.25 and the rising primary trendline support followed by VST and ST primary trend lines at 1754.25 and 1736.50 respectively.

The right side here is bullish, and has been for short-term traders since that dip into the ideal buy zone at 1736.50–but all the elements are falling in place for a potential exhaustion reversal–so keep those trailing stops snug, and be prepared for a possible coming paradigm shift–just in case.

The first canary in the coal mine would likely be unanimous top spotter signals that get confirmed but those are counter-trend signals that must be confirmed by continuation moves–something we did not get at the last spotter, which only minimally confirmed and then immediately reversed once it hit the ST ideal buy zone.

The pros may have some distribution to do since they likely absorbed a fair amount of called equities at Friday’s expiration–what will be interesting is to see what happens after that distribution concludes.

You’ve heard me say it before…’the trend is your friend–until it ain’t’ and the major trends are definitely bullish > 1736.50

But trend followers should keep a cautious eye out as we hover in the resistance void–to protect those huge accrued profits.

…my .02