ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-08-08 at 10.38.31 AM

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There have been two lines in play since the FOMC announcement at the end of July.  The old all-time high at 1685 and the pre-announcement local high of 1695.50.

The pros squeezed above 1695.50 for four days, then we got the counter-trend sell I mentioned to look out for when that line was crossed to the downside.  This morning we got a back-test of that counter-trend sell line at 1695.50 before heading back down to bump the old all-time support line at 1685 again.

Absolutely nothing has changed in the macro picture as we continue to await the playing out of the post-FOMC distribution pattern.

The VST trading range here is between 1705 and 1670.50–and in the middle of that VST range are the two numbers I mentioned above.

Yesterday’s low at 1680.50 wasn’t quite enough to create a new higher structural low–so we could still see a poke down to run the stops under that level if ES breaks out of this small range between 1685 and 1695.50.  It isn’t a given that we will get a pullback to establish a new higher low from here, but an aesthetically-pleasing spot for that, should it come, would be in the ST ideal buy zone between 1670.50 and 1679.

All S&T primary trends remain up > 1670.50 and that is our current bull/bear line for the macro trend.

…my .02

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