ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-02-11 at 9.12.15 AM

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It has now been an incredible 29 trading days since the start of the new year gap and squeeze!  For any unfortunate bears who were caught on the wrong side of that trade under the gap at 1420–life has undoubtedly been miserable.  The last short-term structural low was at 1382.25 way back on 12/28/2012, and price has advanced in a steady squeeze with minimal pullbacks since the gap.

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Screen Shot 2013-02-11 at 9.15.30 AM

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As I have been pointing out since this post back on September 7th of last year–the big technical prize has been the last VLT lower high at 1519.50 (price adjusted for continuous contract pricing).  ES is within just a few points of that target now.

So, let’s connect some dots here…

If one accepts the premise that the futures are the ‘tail that wags the dog’ (the broad equities market)…and the CME futures exchange is located in Chicago…and the president is from Chicago…and the market has advanced in a near vertical trajectory since the start of the present administration in 2008 (low was 583.25 just after the inauguration).  Well, it probably isn’t much of a stretch to assume that tomorrow night’s State of the Union address might be a pretty good time to have a fresh technical breakout of the previous administration’s highs in the back pocket. 😉

So, we’ll watch and see how this plays out from a political and news cycle perspective.

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Screen Shot 2013-02-11 at 9.32.09 AM

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Stops and Targets has been gunning for 1519.50 as the next partials target in all three time frames.

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Screen Shot 2013-02-11 at 9.33.41 AM

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The hourly bar chart above shows the recent Stops and Targets short-term ideal entry zones as shaded green areas.  First significant sellers would come in on a break below the bottom of the current VST range at 1490.25, with early pullback support located at the top of that range breakout at 1510.50

…my .02

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