ES Update

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(click image to enlarge)

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We have now had four consecutive trading days of bearish advances…starting with the VST sell at 1330 on 7/26, then the flip of ST and IT primary trends and ST trendline break sell at 1307 on 7/27, yesterdays close under the range bottom at 1300, and now today’s stop run under 1291.25

The new stop/reverse line is at 1291.25, and if the game has been to squeeze bulls out to accumulate positions ahead of a resolution to the ‘crisis’, this could be a spot where we see a reversal once the stops are run under that line.

Simplest way to look at this is VST bearish below 1291.25 and reversing to VST (and ST/IT counter-trend) bullish above that line.

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.(click image to enlarge)

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I have had a couple of questions recently about the two spotters in play, and I have included a daily chart to show the ‘really big picture’, which is the spotter range between 1368 and 1252.25. Note that the centerline is at 1310 and the ideal entry zones to assure 3:1 gain to risk are bounded by 1295 and 1324. The blue triangle represents the contracting range within. That is what the pros are looking at while shorter-term players are getting chopped up between the range.

Both spotters remain valid until either 1252.25 or 1368 is ultimately broken. The spotter odds have been approximately equal for the eventual trending resolution of this large range–but odds skew bearish under 1310 and bullish above.

…my .02