ES 1148



(click images to enlarge charts)


Friday’s top spotter signal on ES was invalidated yesterday with a push above 1132.75.

There is resistance here at 1138.50, and if that can be overcome then there is an important very long term (VLT) trendline at the 1148 area dating from the October 2007 all-time high.  That descending trendline is shown as dark red on the two charts above.

With the exception of the descending trendlines—there is no other significant resistance between 1139-1160.  That can either presage a reversal after exhaustion of all the resting stops—or a quick move higher to fill the resistance void created by May’s ‘flash crash’.

The key line in play (in my opinion) is still 1124.75.  It can sometimes take a week or more to finish the squeeze above the stop sweep/reversal line—but that remains the key line that bears would have to cross to see any significant downside.

This market is in a trending breakout above 1120. If 1138.50 or the VLT trendline at 1148 fails to create a selling event—then the next significant resistance comes in at 1160 area.

I am on the watch now for new index spotters, and especially for large number of internal spotter signals in the Signal Matrix–as well as large numbers of counter-trend sells, that would alert to the potential eventual exhaustion of this move.

All trends remain up > 1098 and the first sign of potential weakness would only come on a cross below 1124.75 and then 1120.

As I type, Stops and Targets is +65, +58, and +71 for LT, IT, and ST timeframes–and the last blog VST buy signal at 1035.75 is now + 103 points.
…my .02