(click image to enlarge chart)
ES has filled the gap at 1107.50 after the last VST sell at 1140. That gap was created by the gap and squeeze on May 9th.
That gap fill also lines up with a back-kiss of the intermediate trendline extension (shown on the daily chart above). A back-kiss of that line was my original pullback target from the 1216.75 high—and though the 15-minute crash on May 6th certainly obfuscated things, that could still be the hidden pullback/reversal target if a rally erupts from this general area.
If it is going to bounce in the VST, this looks like a spot to potentially do so—but I am going to use the low at 1104 as a VST bull/bear line to test the intraday gap-fill/reversal thesis.
This is an intermediate bear market that has already tested the LT primary trend line (on the May 6th drop)—but the current back-kiss test on the IT trendline bears watching for important reversal/continuation clues.
Today’s early action may center on the gap fill at 1107.50 with the initial low at 1104 defining the stop/reversal for any VST countertrend trades. They could go back down and shake that tree under the low again—but 1104 should work as an intraday dividing line…bullish above/bearish below.
ST trend is down < 1159.25
IT trend is down < 1154.50
LT trend is up > 1083