Market Update

 

As I type, the S&P 500 Futures have been moved right to the short-term stop/reverse line, which is currently located at 2386

 

<rant/>

The Parliament of Whores in Washington DC are tantalizingly close to delivering what their owners desire most… Porkulus 2.0!

In my opinion, this WuFlu nonsense is all about raiding the US Treasury (this is act 2 in the play after the pros netted hundreds of billions in profits in the Quadruple Witching Heist).  The show is now being spoon-fed to a completely subjugated populace, who are forcibly seated (conveniently) in front of their propagandizing devices.  The programming underway is complete with staged theatrics from the Democrats and is all carefully designed to add just the right amount of tension to the performance–which will crescendo to maximum tension just before the glorious release of misplaced joy when the fait accompli is announced.  Don’t be fooled by the Republican versus Democrat pablum… those slithering snakes all serve the same masters.

President Trump, as usual, appears to be on defense in the way he deals with the perpetrators of the ongoing coup d’état.  Everyone keeps wondering if he will grow a set and start to mercilessly slap these imbeciles down, but alas… over three years without a single bad guy being punished does tend to diminish one’s expectations on that front. I will say, though, that IF he is going to do something dramatic–NOW would be a VERY good time to do it.

It would appear that the snakes were again setting President Trump up here for removal from office.  Recognizing that, he appears to have decided to go all-in with the Government Santa Claus (Bernie on steroids) routine that the global socialist left was planning to use to drive public opinion against him.  If my analysis is correct, then it is probably brilliant politics by Trump–but an ongoing tragedy for the world that these evil people continue to operate with complete impunity.

I have the sense that President Trump might just have a giant rabbit ready to be pulled out of his hat.  The man is far too clever and politically astute to be outmaneuvered by the laughably inept globalist dolts, as has been demonstrated time and time again as their plots fail one after another.  I look forward to seeing what he does–and I really look forward to being released from house arrest once Porkulus 2.0 is stolen.

</rant>

 

 

Several of you have sent comments to me regarding the open breakaway gaps I frequently mention in my analysis.  The simple daily bar chart above paints a picture worth a thousand words.

Open breakaway gaps occur when the pros force the futures in a particular direction to influence the cash market.  In that sense, open gaps can show INTENT by the pros.

On the daily bar chart above the magenta lines represent unfilled opening gaps DOWN.  The cyan lines represent unfilled opening gaps UP.

Notice that we have a series of four unfilled gaps down on the chart above.  This whole takedown deal started with that first breakaway gap lower at 3328 on 24-February.  There were then three more of those and it is those gaps that I was referring to when I said repeatedly that this market was being INTENTIONALLY forced lower.

Those magenta gap lines will become major targets if/when this market turns back up.  But in order for the market to turn back up we would expect to start seeing a new breakaway gap UP to show new INTENT by the pros.  Well, look what happened last night… we got our first unfilled breakaway gap UP at 2220.50!

It remains to be seen if that gap will stay unfilled on the next pullback.  If it does and the short-term trend flips higher then the major targets to the upside will be those magenta gaps.  THOSE LINES are where the ready sellers will be waiting to be untrapped from their failed knife catches and that is exactly what I was talking about yesterday when I said the market will either have to chew through that resistance caused by waiting sellers–or else the pros will need to skip over that resistance in order to freeze those sellers and turn them into holders (with profits).

So, let’s keep a very close eye on the first gap UP to see if it holds during the Porkulus 2.0 stage performance currently being presented.  The pros have achieved everything I thought they would on the downside with the OpEx push under 2319.50 support–and then the bounce off 2196 confirmed support on the weekly chart–which was where the original bullish breakout started after President Trump was elected.

A short-term bullish trend reversal will occur IF the S&P 500 Futures closes above 2386 today.  If the new breakaway gap UP at 2220.50 also holds on future pullbacks, we could indeed have a double-bottom set. 

Lotsa if’s still, but this is the very first promising setup since the OpEx/Porkulus 2.0 engineered takedown began.

…my .02

 

 

 

 

Market Update

The screen capture above shows the summary tab for the S&P 500 Futures as I type.

Nothing has really changed yet.  This remains a fully-bearish market (BEAR 10 rating at Stops and Targets) and all trends remain down below the Short-term Stop/Reverse Line, which is currently located at 2460.

Since this market is trending bearish, that line is equal to the last lower high on the daily bars, which was set on 19-March.

Yes, Friday’s daily bar high did briefly poke above that line–but it also poked just below to create an outside bar, which is the bane of trend followers–but a delight for range traders.  That stunt was no surprise on OpEx as the pros pulled out all of the stops to maximize their gains while minimizing everyone else.  It’s what they do, and they are damn good at it.

 

 

For a solid overview of the Big Picture let’s take a look at the major timeframes on my charts, starting from monthly bars (long-term), then zooming in to weekly bars (intermediate), and finally to daily bars (short-term)….

 

click image to enlarge

 

The chart above shows monthly bars.  Each candlestick bar represents one month of trading in the S&P 500 Futures using continuous contract pricing adjusted to the current (June 2020 expiration) contract.

The clear takeaway is that the pros aimed for and then achieved raiding the huge trove of stops under 2319.50.  That move sticks out like a sore thumb and is obvious to me.  THAT was the target for the operation to maximize the Quadruple Expiration Heist, which is now in the rearview mirror.

One thing we can assume, without any hesitation, is that the pros are/were all-in on the short side meaning long puts, short calls, short stock and all the while selling with both fists to drive this market down…intentionally!

The put and call options profits for the pros are now all in the books as of Friday’s close–and it was e-n-o-r-m-o-u-s-l-y profitable for the insiders (Senator Kelly Loeffler is married to the Chairman and CEO of the NYSE, for what that is worth anecdotally).

Now, what remains is to settle the equities that have been ‘put’ to the put sellers.  Most put sellers who were exposed to huge losses limited their exposure by buying offsetting puts to close their positions, but many would have stock assigned to them at prices perhaps well above the current market.  What do you think those folks are going to do next?  Will they sell the underlying stock at huge losses?  You bet they will if we get another engineered plunge down (and many will also sell if/when they get back to ‘break even’).

So, let’s take a worst case scenario for bulls, which is also a best case scenario for bears–and look at the next target lower…

Do you see the two solid green lines at the 2091 area?  Those are confirmed support lines that were created when the resistance from a previous bearish trend was overcome to the upside.  That old resistance became new support when the trend flipped way back in 2016.  In other words, that is where the market began to respond with exuberance after the Trump Election Victory in 2016.

Now, take a peek at the dashed gray line just under those two lines at 2039.50.  THAT was the election night low in the futures where the pros flipped from short to long (because Hillary lost) before driving this thing WAY up.

It would seem that the global socialists might now be sending a not-so-subtle message to President Trump and his supporters…  That message is ‘we can take it all back’, and they almost have in a very short time.  If President Trump doesn’t do what they want, then the next plunge could be to take out the last tiny stock market remains of the great Trump economy (which came entirely at the globalist’s expense–and they did NOT like that!).

So, bottom line is that the OpEx target and their brutal mobster enforcer message was most definitely achieved.

Remember when I wrote that the pros almost always select stop areas under untested support in bearish raids–and untested resistance above resistance in bullish raids as targets of an engineered move?  Well, the next level of untested support is under 2039.50

If I were a global socialist, and thank God that I am not, that is exactly where I would go if my intent was to completely undermine the underpinnings of Donald Trump’s most glorious accomplishment… which was the amazing US nationalist economic boom as a result of his America First policies, which were clearly working spectacularly before this organized attack was launched.

Imagine the Fake News headlines if they were to go BELOW that mark; ‘ALL Gains Since Donald Trump Assumed Office Are Now Gone!

The other side of possibilities here is that the pros get what they wanted at Friday’s OpEx AND The Parliament of Whores in the US Congress passes their Porkulus Bill 2.0, which will add TRILLIONS to the debt (which, of course, the pros hold).

Okay President Trump… the cards have been dealt and so now let’s see what you have got!  These globalists are clearly very formidable foes.  Will you choose to fight Mr. President–or to fold?  I hold a small glimmer of hope that you are going to pull an amazing rabbit out of the hat at the end of all this, but it is just that… a very small (but still hopeful) glimmer.

 

 

 

On the weekly bar chart above, we can move in closer to examine the intermediate timeframe and to also check in on our Weekly Bar Paradigm…which is now being tested for only the 11th time since 2009.

We see the same setup I mentioned above with the raid of stops under the last higher 4-bar weekly pivot low (starting at 2846.50 and now below point number 10 on the chart above).  We also see a bounce off of weekly confirmed support at 2196.

Now, let me provide the best case scenario for bulls who would be hoping to ride the 11th installment of the Weekly Bar Bullish paradigm buy–should that event transpire.  The pros got their OpEx loot under 2319.50 on Friday.  Let’s assume they get what the want next with a new Porkulus 2.0 robbery in the US Congress… There is nothing more revered to pattern traders than a double bottom chart pattern.  If the pros decide to set a double bottom, aggressive counter-trend traders could use 2196 as signal and 2319.50 as a buy entry when crossed.  They teased that a bit this morning–but alas, the Congress Critters misbehaved.

 

 

 

Moving in now to the daily bar chart (see above) we can see the same 2196 confirmed support and then a concentrated band of confirmed resistance (where support was broken on the OpEx stop raid) between 2243.25 and 2342.  The futures poked through that band briefly this morning, but it was only an early head fake, so far.

Now, and this is a big point that I have been pounding the table about over and over again here… The short-term trend cannot possibly turn up until we get a breakout above the short-term stop reverse line currently at 2460.  The intermediate trend cannot possibly turn up until after the short-term trend gets flipped, and so forth.  Do you follow my point?

Yes, somebody is going to ultimately catch a golden knife at the turn with all the ensuing glory and full bragging rights–but look at all the dead bodies of hopeful knife catchers now littering the field from 3386.25 all the way down to the current low at 2174!

There are currently a LOT of underwater speculators out there who can’t wait to sell once they ‘break even’ on those failed knife catches.  Those are the sellers that will have to be overcome before a sustained rally can get going.  Only two ways to do that is to either slowly chew through them–or by the pros pouring buy orders into the the futures on the long side to skip above those exit stops and turn ready sellers into hopeful holders (with profits).

That all depends on if the pros they what get what they want from the detestable, pusillanimous, bottom-feeding (too much?) politicians they own (in my opinion).  Makes one wonder if all the suspicious lockdown orders issued by politicians are actually intended to keep the pitchfork-wielding mobs from storming Washington DC while they accomplish their assigned task.

Whatever happens in the broad markets going forward will originate in the Futures.  My advice is to watch them closely for clues.  Easiest way to do that under the current conditions is to continue watching the Short-term Stop/Reverse line at Stops and Targets.

To my bearish friends, don’t let the pros drag your trades to the other side of that line!  To my bullish friends–I know it is tough, but it is best to be patient when selecting new entries and to wait for the bearish pattern to change and confirm.  A lot of damage has been done to the markets and the way damage of this sort is typically ultimately repaired comes through long periods of annoying sideways consolidation.  That consolidation is caused by an abundance of willing sellers at resistance levels above.  Those resistance levels are where the previous knife catchers are waiting to exit–and the bears, who have been awakened after a long hibernation, are eager to sell short.  There are just too many potential sellers above until/unless we start to jump over resistance lines, which is what ignites bear market rallies.

<rant/>
If I were writing the Tom Clancy-esque script for the President it might go something like this… First let them pass the huge Purkulus Bill 2.0 and then immediately announce that China will be paying for ALL of it.  Seize their US assets, cancel all outstanding debt owed to them and then impose punitive tarriffs on ALL Chinese imports until the debts are fully paid (with interest).  And then for the coup de grace, I would seize the Federal Reserve and wipe out the ALL the debt on their books (since the right hand just owes the left there anyway) and tell the globalist bankers to pound sand!  Yes!  …and there would be non-stop televised perp walks on the newly nationalized TV Networks (formerly Fake News/globalist assets)! 

Yep, that’s what I would do!

But it remains to be seen what President Trump actually does about this audacious assault on America, if anything.  There are very powerful forces in play here.  Strong opening moves by the black team!  Now, let’s see what the white side has in store for either a response, or a surrender.
</rant>

The Short-term Stop/Reverse Line is currently at ES 2460!

…my .02

 

 

 

 

Market Update

Today is Quadruple Witching Day where stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures ALL expire simultaneously.  For those who want to understand the phenomenon better, here is a good link from Investopedia:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quadruplewitching.asp

The trading volume today could be epic!

 

There have been some rumblings that the financial markets might be closed or the hours shortened in the coming weeks under the auspices of the Coronavirus clampdown.

There have also been rumblings that any coming US government bailouts to corporations will NOT be extended to Chinese-owned/controlled US companies.  One wonders if the real reason for this Coronavirus scare doesn’t go quite a bit deeper–like maybe China deep.

Here is a partial list of Chinese-owned US Companies, and some of them might just surprise you…

https://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/chinese-acquisitions-us-companies/

*That list above only goes to 2013, so if anyone is interested then you will need to do some additional digging on your own to find out if you might be invested in companies acquired since then.

Also, many may remember that President Trump ordered ALL US companies to exit operations in China in late summer of 2019:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/trump-says-hes-ordering-american-companies-to-immediately-start-looking-for-an-alternative-to-china.html

You can do with the above information whatever seems appropriate–but I am not personally looking to be an owner of any company controlled by and/or otherwise in bed with the Communist Chinese at this juncture.  Just FYI.

 

Oh, and in case you didn’t know…

One of four (so far) US Congress Critters who have been exposed for dumping their stocks immediately after a Senate briefing about Chinese Coronavirus implications (and whatever else is not yet being told to us) is Kelly Loeffler, a senator from Georgia (who was appointed in 2020 against Donald Trump’s recommendation).

Guess WHO she is married to?

This guy…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Sprecher

Jeffrey Sprecher is the CEO and chairman of the board of The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

He is also the chairman of The New York Stock Exchange

Remember when I said that the pros were driving this market down ON PURPOSE?   😉

 

<rant/>
You don’t typically shut down the entire world economy over a simple flu virus.  There could be something much more foreboding lurking under the surface–and it might be that all-out financial warfare has been declared on the US in a combined effort by the global socialists.  If that indeed proves to be the case, then I sure am glad we have Donald Trump as our wartime President.  That man knows how to turn the screws economically on the bad guys–and he makes all the right sort of enemies.
</rant>

 

*That’s a new record short rant for me.  🙂

…my .02

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Update

I have been saying this over and over again… but you all need to know that what is happening all around us, and especially in the market, is all being done intentionally!  This entire takedown has been artificially driven by the futures.  How do I know?  Because they have had multiple opportunities to ignite huge rallies that have each been forcibly squelched using the futures.  Today (so far) is another one.  Check out the huge number of Bottom Spotter alerts that were present at yesterday’s close:

https://stopsandtargets.com/members/signals/bigpicture2.html

Yep, there were 1,013 of ’em!

 

 

click image to enlarge

 

So, I say to myself… if I were one of the pros sitting with HUGE profits on my all-in short positions from the top–what would I do if I were them?

Each candlestick on the chart above represents one month of the S&P 500 FUTURES contract.  When the pros go big on a premeditated move like this they are always looking for a stop trove as a price target.  The stops they crave almost always live under an untouched support pivot in a pullback, and above an untouched resistance pivot in a rally.

Do you see the dashed gray line on the chart above drawn from the ‘VLT’ green highlighted pivot at 2319.50?  Guess what would happen if they pushed price down under that line?  Do ya’ think we might see some new sellers come in there?

It is as plain as it can possibly be to me that the market has been intentionally forced down–and the ridiculous stuff coming out of the Fake News is simply laughable at this point.  They are doing everything they can to create a panic–and I do mean everything.

Want to see some facts about how silly this whole virus charade actually is?  Click the following link and take a glance at what the Fake News is breathlessly describing as a ‘pandemic’:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

 

What we have been seeing is an organized all-out attack on the financial system of the United States by unknown actors and for unknown reasons that will likely only become apparent to us later.  What is somewhat curious to me is why the Trump administration hasn’t used certain financial tools at their disposal to stop this.  I am going to assume that they know things we don’t and just go with that.

So, we have an intentional takedown, no uptick rule has been reinstated, nor was the Plunge Protection Team apparently activated to jam the overnight futures as they have under previous administrations to halt a decline.  This all feels like an old Tom Clancy plot to me.  Lots of moving parts here and the propaganda from the global socialist media freaks likely is a smokescreen to hide the real attack, which is so far unseen.  Let’s all hope that President Donald Trump is Clancy’s hero Jack Ryan in real life.  I am sure that man has his hands full figuring out who is behind this and what the real intentions are.  I kinda like the way things turned out in Clancy’s book Executive Orders in the aftermath of chaos from the preceding book Debt of Honor.  A guy can dream can’t he?

So, back to that line at 2319.50 on the monthly bar chart above… If the pros really wanted to shake loose maximum sellers, that line would have been the obvious goal from their perch at the tippy top.  If I were them, I think I would suck in as many buyers as I could just above–and then run it down under that line to open the true floodgates of selling.  The void of support underneath between 2319.50 and 2095.50  is where I would cover my short positions, and that is also where I would look to redeploy on a reversal.  But, my alter ego is an exceptionally devious bastard… so ya’ gotta take that into consideration.  Yeah, if I were the one pulling the levers I think I would take those stops under 2319.50 and then set a double bottom somewhere near that line and then rally like hell once I had packed my fat little squirrel cheeks with all the nuts I could carry once price confirmed my thesis.  We’ll see how it goes, but that’s what I would do if I were them.

 

 

I have been pounding the table trying to point out that knife catching under these circumstances is really not the best tactic.  I remain adamant that the first clean sign that the pros are finished with INTENTIONALLY holding the bulls’ heads underwater will come when we eventually get a close ABOVE the short-term stop/reverse line to break the bearish cycle of lower highs on daily bars.  The short-term stop/reverse line (which is also the last lower high on the daily bars) on the S&P 500 Futures is at 2542.75 today.  It is simply impossible for a major reversal to occur without that line FIRST being crossed.

When the time comes to buy with both fists, most people will be absolutely terrified and want no part of knife catching at that point.  It’s a crazy thing, but that’s exactly how market psychology works.  Paradoxically… when a trade feels good on the initial entry, more often than not–it probably isn’t.  That’s the really cool thing about Stops and Targets.  It is a logic-driven machine, with no feelings… you know, kinda like me.  🙂

…my .02

 

 

 

 

 

Market Update

*updated @ 3:45 pm to clarify a very important point in the closing paragraphs right after the Jesse Livermore quote…

 

I told many people over the weekend that how the market opened Sunday night/Monday morning would tell us much about the pros plans.  Remember, they can e-a-s-i-l-y stop this at any time by simply buying the overnight futures.  The best place to kick off any premeditated move for the pros is on the weekly open on Sunday night.  All the best moves typically happen there, so keep that in mind for the future.  FYI:  another favorite spot to play pro games is after a holiday market closure.

I just want to say this one more time and then I will let it rest.  They are doing all of this ON PURPOSE!  This market has been FORCED lower with the Fake News being used as a bludgeon for maximum effect.  Opening gaps almost always indicate the pro’s intent.  The market doesn’t simply move…but rather it IS MOVED.  Never forget that.

So, what exactly did they accomplish with last night’s lock limit down antics?  It is simple.  They clearly wanted the stops underneath Friday’s lows.  So, now we just need to watch the previous day’s low as our new line in the sand for reversal purposes.  Bulls and bears alike should be very interested in that line.  Many bears now have some serious profits rolled-up on paper.  Now, ask yourself what happens to those profits if they suddenly decide to close the markets in an ongoing pattern of forced over-reaction (all intentional) and incessant fear-mongering through the Fake News.  Hmmm.

Friday is Quadruple Witching across all of the options markets.  That is the day when ALL of the March contracts expire.  Unlike stock holders, who can simply elect to weather the storm and wait for the inevitable rebound that will take hold after the pros have accomplished their objectives for this all-out assault on the American economy, options players will see finality this week–one way or the other.  So remember, today’s predator is tomorrow’s prey in the market.  Think carefully about not getting too greedy folks.  For bears, it really doesn’t get much better than this–but the pros ALWAYS eventually turn on the bears who linger too long–and when it happens you likely won’t be able to get your buy-to-cover order filled at your stops once the market flips.  That’s they way the pros always roll.

 

 

The screen capture above shows the S&P 500 Futures, as I type…

The short-term timeframe is in play and that is what it is all about in this current market.  The arrows on the screen capture above from: https://stopsandtargets.com/members/futures/es.html show the current short-term range, which is between 2380 and 2697.25. That short-term range changes every day and it equals the previous trading day’s low and high.  Simple.  Are you with me so far?

Those are the only two numbers that matter in the current BEAR 10 configuration.  Period!

Why, you might ask, do I say that?  …The definition of a bearish trend is: a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.  The current bearish trend cannot be reversed until we eventually see a close that crosses ABOVE the previous lower high.

Okay, pause and let that previous paragraph sink in.

That takes care of the importance of the range high–so why do I say the range low is also important?  …because the counter-trend speculator stops are congregated just underneath.  You see, the very disciplined knife catchers (I know, that’s an oxymoron) will continually take probing shots on the long side hoping to find a bottom and they will almost ALL set their initial protective stops underneath the recent low, to limit risk.  The pros KNOW that and so will continue to dip down and grab those all-too-easy sell orders (when stops are triggered) until the supply dries up.

Eventually, the bottom is going to come after a counter-trend buy signal is generated when the previous bar’s stops have been taken and then price rallies back up inside of the range.  The pros will decide when they are ready to switch sides–but they likely won’t do that until the buying dries up near the range bottom.

It’s okay for bears to take partials at the bottom targets (buyers) and although eventually some bulls will be rewarded when the market eventually rallies–the odds are very low on these counter-trend entires until/unless the buying volume dries up.  Ask all of the dejected knife catchers who bought in Friday and then set their stops under the Friday low.  See how that works”

Remember, for the pro’s trades to work they MUST entice large numbers of traders to take the opposite side from theirs.  When the bottom comes it will be at maximum pessimism in the Fake News cycle.  Watch for it… and watch those short-term trading range numbers very carefully in the coming days.

Bulls always want to catch the bottom on these things and it FEELS good to try to enter on a push down–but the smarter way to trade is to always run with the trend and to leave the counter-trend stuff alone–especially in fully bearish (and fully bullish) markets.  For best odds, let the pros FIRST set the direction and THEN try to get the momentum winds at your back on your own entires.

 

The pros intentionally pushed this over the edge way up higher to flip all trends down–and now I am just starting to sense the inevitable manufactured fear crescendoing.  Careful here, my bear friends… but also be careful my bullish knife-catching friends.

The first eighth and the last eighth are ALWAYS the most expensive!

Those of you old-timers that have been around since the pre-decimialization of the markets know exactly what I mean with that last Jesse Livermore quote.

The most expensive first eighth for bulls is a counter-trend long entry below the range bottom in a trending bear market–and the most expensive first eighth for bears is on a counter-trend short entry above the range top in a trending bull market.

The smarter way, in my opinion, to establish new entries is as follows:  The best long entry for bulls is very often at a breakout ABOVE the range top in a trending reversal FROM a bear market to a new bull market–and the best initial short entry for bears comes on a breakout BELOW the range bottom in a trending reversal FROM a bull market to a new bear market.

Don’t believe me?  Check out the Stops and Targets trend start net change columns on the summary tab screen capture above. Bears have racked up massive short trade gains of -22%, -25%, and -17% respectively for the last long-term, intermediate, and short-term signals!

Remember, the short-term range changes after the close every day, so those numbers will be different tomorrow–but the exact same advice is ALWAYS applicable.  Bulls and bears should BOTH watch that short-term stop/reverse line very carefully during this BEAR 10 market configuration!

Caveat emptor as we navigate Quadruple Witching arriving at week’s end.

…my .02