Futures Options Rollover

 

Futures Options have rolled over from the September 2018 to December 2018 futures contract with a difference of +5 points from ESU18 (September) to ESZ18 (December).

All previous chart numbers have been adjusted to reflect the new contract pricing—so, for example, the Intermediate Stop/Reverse line from the expiring September contract at 2803 now becomes 2808, and so forth.

 

 

click on image to enlarge chart

 

The chart above is an update from my last post.  The rally from the Bottom Spotter at 2542.75 on 6-Feb-18 continues to chug along and will do so until the bottom of the intermediate range envelope channel is eventually breached.  That channel bottom is currently at 2808.

The pros pushed the S&P 500 Futures above the January 29 top at 2892.25, as expected.  Many bears were forced to cover above that line and we got a subsequent counter-trend pullback warning at 2922.50 on 30-Aug-18 for both the IT and LT timeframes after that bearish buy-to-cover stop feeding frenzy.  It is interesting to note that no intermediate counter-trend sell signals have made it back to the bottom of the range channel since the start of this very powerful rally at the last counter-trend buy signal at 2560.75 on 3-Apr-18!

This rally since the last Bottom Spotter has been amazing–but after the pros digested the big trove of bear stops resting above the January highs there is now an increased probability for a deeper correction at some point.

So, basic analysis here is the same as before… continue to diligently watch the intermediate range bottom, which hasn’t been touched since 2-Apr-18.  So long as that channel keeps rising then the bullish trend continues.

If we get a push to new highs with a reversal selloff on the same day–then watch for potential Top Spotter signals.  If we get weakness ahead, then watch the bottom of the short-term range envelope, which is currently at 2870.  A break below would be a counter-trend sell for the intermediate timeframe and could bring forth a shot at hitting that lower rail of the intermediate range envelope on a deeper pullback, which would be a notable change in character for this market.

…my .02