Options Rollover

Stops and Targets Summary for S&P 500 Futures
Stops and Targets Summary for S&P 500 Futures

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Options have rolled over from the September 2017 to December 2017 futures contract with a difference of –1.75 points from ESU17 (September) to ESZ17 (December).

All previous chart numbers have been adjusted to reflect the new contract pricing—so, for example, the long-term primary trend line from the expiring September contract at 2018 now becomes 2016.25, and so forth.

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S&P 500 Futures - Monthly bars
S&P 500 Futures – Monthly bars

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ES continues chugging along on the way to our extension target of 2513.25 for five waves up from the 2009 bottom at 461.25 (all numbers have been adjusted for continuous contract pricing).

The current monthly bar remains an ‘inside bar’ between 2414 and 2486.75 (the August range).

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S&P 500 Futures - weekly bars
S&P 500 Futures – weekly bars

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We continue to watch the key provisional low line at 2414 (which was the top spotter pullback target) to see if it will eventually become the next higher low in the sequence of the amazing paradigm strategy that has nailed every major buy (in real-time) since the 2009 bottom.  It will not be until the end of the next trading week until that line confirms, if it does.  If price remains above until then, 2414 will replace 2313.75 as the hard deck for long-term investors in the ongoing paradigm.

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S&P 500 Futures - Daily Bar/Range chart
S&P 500 Futures – Daily Bar/Range chart

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In the daily bar/range chart above price continues to trade within the Trump Trident Channel (shown as dashed blue lines in the chart above).  It has been an amazing run since the last weekly paradigm buy signal was generated on election night way back at 2016.25.

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S&P 500 Futures - hourly bars
S&P 500 Futures – hourly bars

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And lastly, we have the hourly bar chart that shows key support and resistance levels with the current short-term trading range of 2419.25 to 2486.25.  Today price broke out above the VST range I pointed out in my previous post between 2443.75 and 2478 (adjusted to December continuous contract pricing).  There were resting bear stops (guaranteed buyers for the pros) just above and more are awaiting above the all-time high at 2486.75.  Hurricane Irma was much less devastating than feared, thank goodness.

So, that’s where we are at present.  The spotter signal on August 8th served its purpose and the ensuing low at 2414 remains a key number to watch over the next 10 trading days.

…my .02

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ES Update

Let’s take a quick peek at the current configuration of the S&P 500 Futures…

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S&P 500 Futures Monthly Bars
S&P 500 Futures Monthly Bars

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Everything you really need to know about the current trading range is summed up nicely on the monthly chart above.  September’s range thus far (2445 to 2479.75) is painting an ‘inside bar’ with the range being set by the August bar high of 2488.50 and low of 2415.75.  Inside of that August high/low range price will just meander with a bias of down under the August close of 2470 and up above.  No institutional buy or sell programs of any significance will fire until/unless one side of that range is broken.

As I pointed out in my last post the August low of ES 2415.75 is an important number.  If 2415.75 can hold up over the next couple of weeks then we will eventually see the next higher pivot low form in the weekly bar paradigm that has been our roadmap for over 2,000 points of gain since the 2009 bottom.  It has been like shooting fish in a barrel over the last eight years using that weekly bar paradigm in conjunction with the buy signals from Stops and Targets.

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S&P 500 Futures - weekly bars
S&P 500 Futures – weekly bars

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The numbered points on the weekly bar chart above are the places where price has dipped below the last higher 4-bar pivot low.  That has happened only nine times since 2009 and 7 out of 9 times were stop sweep/reversal buy opportunities.  The only two that did not immediately reverse (points 2 and 6 on the chart above) after a stop sweep correspond perfectly to waves two and four down in a five wave impulsive sequence.  Both of those ended up being double bottoms (at points 3 and 7) to start the next wave up.

So, why is the August low at ES 2415.75 important? …you might ask.  The answer is because that low satisfied the minimum pullback requirement to set the left side of a potential new higher 4-bar pivot low.  Now we are waiting to see if four bars can form to the right side above that low.  If that happens (still another two weeks to go), then we will move the hard deck for the bullish paradigm from the current spot at 2315.50 up to 2415.75 and along with it–all of those long-term trailing profit stops.

It still remains to be seen if 2415.75 will hold up on any new pullbacks, but that is indeed the number to watch in the coming weeks, as I pointed out here in real-time at that low.

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S&P 500 Futures - hourly bars
S&P 500 Futures – hourly bars

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Zooming into the hourly bars, we can see that the current short-term range corresponds to the August high and low at 2488.50 and 2415.75.

Recent action has centered on a break out above the old spotter channel at 2450 with a poke above 2474 to run the bear stops followed by a gap down to retest the channel breakout at 2450.  Pretty standard skullduggery tactics by the pros.

The next upside target is the hourly bar open gap at 2473.75, with the first round of momentum buyers coming in above 2479.75.  Sellers would come in on a move under 2445.50 with the next downside target being the bottom rail of the rising Trump Trident channel.

The current short-term primary trend line at 2457 is rangebound here as we await some movement above or below the VST numbers pointed out in the preceding paragraph.

I have drawn in the August closing price line at 2470 to show the bias of trading relative to the August range.

The current VST trading range is 2445.50 to 2479.75

…my .02

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