S&P 500 Futures Option Update

S&P 500 Futures Option Daily Bar Range Chart
S&P 500 Futures Option Daily Bar Range Chart

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In my last posts, I pointed out the short-term trend channel (shown as blue parallel lines in the image above).  Just like clockwork S&P 500 Futures Options first tagged the top rail and then the bottom rail and continues chugging along back toward another visit to the rising top rail (currently near the 2317 area).

That channel is what continues to guide price action–and until we see a breakout, that remains the path.

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S&P 500 Futures Options Weekly Chart
S&P 500 Futures Options Weekly Chart

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The weekly bar roadmap continues intact.  The hard deck is currently at 2023.25, as the squeeze off the election day bottom continues.

Note that the paradigm that has been in place since 2009 remains intact so long as we do not get a move below that hard deck that is not immediately reversed –as it has been in 7 out of 9 occurrences (all marked on the chart above) since the secular bear market bottom.  The only two breaks under the last higher 4-bar pivot low (points 2 and 6 highlighted in yellow) resulted in what I am designating as waves 2 and 4 in a 5-wave impulse sequence being painted on the charts by the pros….

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S&P 500 Futures Options Monthly Bars
S&P 500 Futures Options Monthly Bars

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The monthly bar chart above gives a better look at that 5-wave impulse sequence.  The current upside projection target for wave 5 is 2520.25

At some point, we are due for a pullback.  When that happens, the hard deck from the weekly chart will come back into play as the pros should try to eventually build a higher 4-bar weekly pivot somewhere above that line.  If for some reason that paradigm fails, I will point it out right here.

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Stops and Targets S&P 500 Futures Option Analysis
Stops and Targets S&P 500 Futures Option Analysis

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Stops and Targets analysis for ES is showing all timeframes trending above 2299.50.  A cross under that line would generate the first counter-trend sell signal.  Still looking for an 80/20 ratio of Buy/Sell signals and unanimous top spotters to indicate an eventual exhaustion of momentum.  I have been watching very carefully since the new administration took over and so far have sensed nothing new in the general behavior of the market, except perhaps the lack of overnight gotcha moves in the futures.  These are interesting times indeed.

…my .02

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