Leaving an opening gap at 2289, the S&P 500 futures are headed toward the first downside target, which is the bottom of the rising ST trident channel shown on the daily bar/range chart above. The selling started at a touch of the top rail of that same channel. That rising channel bottom support is currently near the 2255 area. The key number to watch today is 2251.75, which is the bottom of the VST trading range. If the low of today’s bar at the close remains above that line then the ST primary trend line will move up to 2251.75 on the close.
Something very curious happened on Friday with the ES data. The pros ‘corrected’ the previous closing price mid-day to finish at no change on Thursday rather than what we all saw in real-time and what Stops and Targets picked up with the top spotter alert on the close on 1/26. Since Stops and Targets always utilizes the latest corrected data stream, the top spotter signal from 1/26 mysteriously vanished at the close on Friday. I have seen the pros play around with data corrections before, but this is the first time I can recall it affecting a spotter signal. As far as I am concerned, that was a valid spotter (although marginal as pointed out in my previous post) and it was confirmed Friday on the close with a move under 2289.50 that I also pointed out in my previous post.
I won’t speculate too much on why the pros altered the closing price after the fact except to point out that much of the trading done these days is algorithm-based and a flat close versus a negative close would negate many programmatic sell signals. It is what it is though and I wanted to point out that anomaly here.
The pullback we are seeing remains short-term in nature above the current ST primary trend line at 2248.50 and as pointed out previously–if the low of today’s bar is greater than 2251.75 the short-term primary trend line will move up to that line on the close.
Last night I received several inquiries and comments from Stops and Targets members concerning the Top Spotters on the indexes and index futures options. Let’s take a look at those and I’ll make some comments and observation…
There were four index spotters yesterday at the close: SPX, NASDAQ, RUA, and ES
There were not index spotters in the DOW, YM, or NQ
We only had 189 top spotter alerts in the Russell 3000, so not a lot of internal correlation.
The screen capture above shows Stops and Targets’ Buy/Sell Signals and the ratio of overall bullish to bearish is 67% to 33%. Previous major tops have tended to be more in the 80% bullish range, so that is also a bit low for an ideal exhaustion top.
And finally, as we look closely at the daily bar/range chart you can see that yesterday’s highs tagged the top edge of the short-term trend channel (light blue on the chart above) but the very-short-term channel (light green on the chart above) still has some potential upside room to run.
If ES stays above the current very short term primary trend line at 2251.75 for the next two trading days then that will become a new higher short-term primary trend line. This is working out just as it should to continually move up the trailing stops to lock in at least partial profits from the big move up from the stop sweep/reversal buy signal at 2095/2023.25 on election night.
Just a reminder to newer readers that spotter signals are the setup–but the actual trigger is confirmation, which in this case is a close below the low of yesterday’s setup bar–or 2289.50. If the signal is confirmed then the first target is typically the ideal buy zone at the short-term primary trend line. However, since ES is in breakout mode with no upside resistance targets there is no ideal buy zone yet (until a new short-term high is confirmed).
So, bottom line is to keep an eye on the indexes and index futures options here for a possible confirmation since we have our first spotters, but don’t be surprised if those are invalidated with a move above yesterday’s highs. If on the other hand, we start to see some selling, the first downside target would be the open gap at 2274.50 which currently lines up with the bottom of the rising VST channel.
Rumor has it that some very big fish were caught short on the election. There are new 52-week highs in several of the most shorted stocks so someone out there is feeling pain. Shorted stocks represent guaranteed buyers at higher prices for market makers and the market can’t drop until those trapped bears give up and buy to cover. Always remember that the goal of the pros is to get suckers lined up on the other side of their trades. They will use whatever trickery and fake news necessary to achieve their goals…and that’s why I use Stops and Targets to help keep my emotions in check.
Let’s see what happens with the spotter signals today. It would take a close under ES 2289.50 for confirmation (or a move above ES 2299.50 to invalidate), so that is the bull/bear line in play today for all of you type A’s out there.
The big day is finally here for the official start of the Trump Presidency. Starting at about noon today the adults will be back in charge and the entire playing board will begin to be reset. There has not been such a significant change in direction for policy since 1980 when Ronald Reagan supplanted the woefully inept, but likable and I think a decent man, Jimmy Carter. In the coming weeks, as various agency staffs are radically reshuffled and new policies begin to take effect the market led by the E-mini S&P 500 futures options will begin to operate and respond under new management.
There are not many people left trading in the markets who will not openly admit that the game has been rigged these past eight years. The weekly paradigm that we have been pointing out here since the 2009 ARRA bottom has been easy pickings for those who have been willing to suspend economic reality and ride the annual stimulus gravy train that was made possible by a complete lack of a Federal budget and continuing spending resolutions. It is safe to say that game will be coming to a screeching halt as the extremely impressive Trump Cabinet gets to work, who unlike the outgoing community organizer and his band of misfits knows a thing or two about budgets and managing money.
What will it mean for the markets going forward once the recurring stimulus opiate is removed? That remains to be seen. The old order won’t relinquish trillions of dollars of power without a fight–but the globalist cabal who recently met in Davos has never looked more impotent than they do now. However, those folks own and control enormous monopolies almost everywhere. For example… have you ever noticed that no matter what city you travel to in America you have the same limited number of choices? Usually, they give you two stores in each segment…examples are Home Depot or Lowes for hardware. Drug Stores? Yep, usually just two per market. Restaurants? Same couple of restaurant groups owns all of those fast food franchises that are the exact same in every town. That’s the commercial face of global socialism. Fewer and fewer choices for the peon masses with resulting lower quality and higher prices. It is the Hegelian Dialectic concept of thesis (Capitalism), antithesis (communism), and their glorious end-game goal of synthesis (the illusion of Capitalism under the iron-fisted control of a very few ultra-rich who own everything, while the indentured masses exist solely for servicing their pleasure). Well, folks I don’t know about you…but I absolutely loathe those people and want to see America returned to a land of opportunity where if someone wants to start a new hardware store or drug store, or a new restaurant, or a small farm, or a factory making an innovative new product, or whatever entrepreneurial passion that drives and inspires them–that the government-imposed and enforced barriers to entry are absolutely minimal! The globalists have been amassing their power through unfettered mergers and acquisitions and then buying off politicians to effect onerous laws and regulations that make it darn near impossible for anybody to break into a market as an entrepreneur and challenge their benefactor’s monopolies.
Well, guess what? The Trump administration totally gets that and the very smart folks who are about to assume control will be immediately set at odds against those despicable globalist creatures. If the Trump administration is successful at sidestepping a rotten-to-the-core Congress and a filthy dirty press corps then great things will begin to happen in America again and we are all going to be better off in a few years. The brilliance of Trump is that he makes obsolete the Alinsky tactic of identity politics, whereby the globalists seek to create division and hatred between every possible identity group. Trump has redefined the battle as nationalists versus globalists. ALL Americans can unite under Trump against our true enemy, which are the oppressive midgets behind the curtain. Today is a good day to go out and buy a new American flag!
So, after a slight rant diversion, I come back to the real question of what does this mean for the markets? I think ultimately a successful Trump presidency can be great for all Americans–but it might not be a smooth ride for the markets as the old corrupt ways are flushed out and the markets begin to return to free trading and are weaned from constant jolts in the overnight futures at critical junctures. Major changes are coming and I do mean MAJOR. As I mentioned in a previous post, sometimes it requires some short-term pain to realize long-term prosperity and that could be forthcoming. No worries, though, we will know when the paradigm has changed when the weekly chart breaks form and stops building higher lows off of stop sweep/reversals. The hard deck currently for those who are in major profit in the long term is at ES 2023.23 We are a long way above that hard deck at present but after all the sideways trading recently it won’t take much to achieve the minimum pullback required to set the next higher pivot low on the weekly chart. That minimum pullback target is currently at 2227.75, FYI.
So, with all that said let’s take a look at the current setup across each timeframe starting from the monthly bars and zooming in to hourly….
The five wave extension target is 2520.25. We have a higher high and higher low on the current monthly bar and it’s all good on a monthly perspective above December’s close of 2236.25
Today we come to the end of an error as far as regime change, but the markets sure have been beautifully and skillfully managed (rigged) over the past eight years. Almost straight up while nearly 100 million able-bodied Americans have been out of the workforce and the national debt has ballooned to 20 trillion dollars.
The weekly chart above has been our roadmap for the overt manipulation by the outgoing caliphate. We will know when the paradigm has changed when a dip below that last higher pivot low is not immediately bought on a stop sweep/reversal as it has in 7 out of 9 occurrences over the past 8 years. Once we see a failure to recover back above that last pivot low we will know that the game has changed. As I pointed out earlier, the current hard deck for the paradigm is at the last 4-week pivot low at 2023.25. The minimal pullback from here to accomplish a new higher pivot low is currently 2227.75. If we get selling at some point, that minimum pullback number will be the first downside target.
The daily bar/range chart above shows the short-term trading range of 2028 to 2277 with the bottom of the very-short-term range at 2248.50. Barring something extraordinary today, the short-term primary trend line will move up to 2248.50 at the close and then will become an important line in the coming days. Note also that there is an open gap at 2236.25 from the New Year. That would be the first downside target if selling comes, followed by the previously mentioned 2275.25 (just under the current ST range bottom). An upside breakout above 2277 would have no resistance above and would instead run to exhaustion, which is where we would want to keep a keen eye on the spotter signals, should that happen. Note also that price has been on autopilot recently while riding the center tine of the intermediate trident channel. A break below that center channel support would also be noteworthy to traders.
And finally, we come to the hourly bars. The monotonous sideways action of late has swept away all close-in support and resistance but the key features to note here for very short-term traders are the hidden gaps at 2274.50 and 2233.50. That should define the immediate trading range unless we get a breakout to the upside, but just be aware that the pros don’t like to leave unfilled gaps on the chart.
In the near term, ES 2248.50 will be the line to watch. A break under there would bring sellers as the open gap and minimal pullback targets would come into play with no significant support in between.
Hope everyone has a great day as we celebrate the inauguration of our new President!
As I type, the E-mini S&P 500 Futures price is trading almost exactly where it was at my last posting. At the close of trading today the short-term primary trend line for ES will move up to 2228 and those sitting with big profits can move the stops up to that new higher low from the current 2173.75. So, bottom line going forward is that it’s all good for bulls above 2228 with the first potential counter-trend sell coming on a move under 2269.50 (see Stops and Targets chart above).
I thought I would toss in a quick rant–but with a warning to any Obama fans (if there actually are any remaining out there) that you might want to stop reading here…
Like most everyone else, I am waiting until they drag the teleprompter-reading narcissist, his ‘wife’, and her(?) full-time royal entourage of twenty-four(!), the rent-a-kids, the mother-in-law, and the ‘real’ president (Valerie Jarrett) kicking and screaming from the freebie residence quarters at the White House. I hope the permanent White House staff doesn’t forget to carefully inventory the valuables as these vile and lecherous anti-American grifters are shown the exit. However, the Obama entourage should be free to take all of the White House prayer rugs with them (yes, they do actually exist—but only for a few more days).
The White House is going to need a thorough cleaning and fumigation and perhaps even an exorcist before the new occupants arrive. I imagine that the oval office now reeks of stale cigarettes and spilled beer and no telling what sort of other vandalism and disrespect will be shown by this ungrateful bunch. Fortunately, the new boss knows a thing or two about remodeling and restoring abused and neglected public buildings (see The Old Post Office) to their former glory.
Yes, it is just eleven more days until a major regime change is scheduled to occur here in the USA and the happiest person on this planet might well be Jimmy Carter–who will be officially unburdened (by a huge margin) from the disgrace of having formerly been the worst president in US history
It remains to be seen if President-elect Trump will follow through with all of his populist campaign rhetoric, but the way I look at him is in the spirit of an ancient proverb…
An enemy of my enemy is a friend of mine.
Trump certainly checks the boxes on infuriating many of the folks that I personally consider repulsive and anti-American. So yeah, so far I like him a lot.
FYI: There are quiet rumors circulating that the Department of Defense has aligned with the incoming administration in a silent coup against the CIA, and that MAJOR changes are forthcoming in that politically-infested rat’s nest. There are good guys and bad guys in the permanent government and now is the time for those who love their country and abhor what has been done over the past several decades to finally make a stand.
We will have to watch and see how it all plays out but this is going to be something else if those rumors are true. The last guy to try taking on the CIA was JFK, and it didn’t end well for him—but Trump has navigated their treacherous waters magnificently so far. He has dismantled the entire uni-party apparatus and beat both sides at their own rigged election game. The old-line media is now defanged and widely regarded as a complete joke…and the leftist hollyweirdos are on the precipice. Man, this is great!
Next up on the docket are the congress critters like ‘songbird’ John McCain and his girlfriend Lindsey Graham. Oh, it’s going to be great fun to watch the globalist puppet-stringed clowns on Capital Hill get eviscerated. Please pardon my schadenfreude.
Personally, I hope this country gets back to trying to do the right thing based on Judeo-Christian morality and successfully drives a stake through the heart of Kissinger’s disgusting decades-long implementation of Realpolitik forever. You can directly trace the current decline of the western world to the Nixon administration and specifically to Kissinger’s disastrous policy initiatives.
Imagine what would happen if President Trump were to declare the Open Society Foundation a terrorist organization and then bring all available US resources and assets to bear in rounding up and prosecuting all the various subsidized tentacles that have been terrorizing the world’s citizenry. How about if the US defunded the UN and dissolved NATO and formed a new alliance with Russia included?
…if you can imagine that, then perhaps you can start to understand why so many about to be out-of-power folks are absolutely losing their minds over Trump as president. Again, how great is this?
It was all set up for them, so they thought, and Hillary was to perhaps be the final president before the implementation of their border-less new world order (communism) with an entrenched ultra-rich aristocracy and a completely subdued peasant class. They forgot to study history…real history and not their politically-correct echo chamber version—and those ignorant of the past are doomed to repeat it. Those fools have been brainwashed by their own propaganda. The actually believe the are in the majority. Ahem, where were the huge adoring crowds on the campaign trail for Hillary and her duffous side-kick? And those protestors at Trump rallies? They were paid to be there. Pretty sad when you have to buy ‘friends’ and create millions of fake fans in social media while the other guy is getting the real deal. Bottom line, those losers are in serious denial, to use their own parlance.
We may not see guillotines in the streets this time around, at least not in America, but one should never underestimate the potential savagery of an enraged body politic. That is mistake number two for these folks. Let’s see if they try the ‘let them eat cake’ approach just before the doors get kicked in all around the world. So far, this has been a bloodless coup in America using the framework of government brilliantly constructed by this country’s founding fathers. Once President Trump is sworn in then we will see a confirmation of the principles upon which our country was founded–right after the last time we snatched it back from a tyrannical foreign occupier.
In the remaining days before the inauguration. These desperate global socialist folks are capable of almost anything. Loss of control of literally TRILLIONS of dollars is at stake along with a complete failure of their cherished communist ideology (again). The global socialists are completely unbound by morality or conscience so as I tell my own family…be wary in your surroundings and stay vigilant. The good guys are coming, but they are not quite here yet.
There is also oftentimes a short-term price that must be paid for affecting a long-term change. That inevitable impending correction, as our economy lurches and reverses course from a disastrously ill-conceived ‘service’ model that bleeds wealth–back into a productive model, which instead creates new widespread wealth by combining raw materials, labor, and creativity, may yet lay ahead. A rocky, but temporary upheaval may lie ahead in the near future–so we will be watching Stops and Targets very closely for the first signs of a paradigm shift and I will point out the warning signs here when the time comes.
I can’t wait for college students to once again be taught the prescient wisdom of Adam Smith, where rational self-interest and competition will once again lead to tremendous economic prosperity, as opposed to the perpetually-failing Marxist fallacies.
Trump definitely gets it but the old aristocracy and their paid lackeys will fight him tooth and nail every step of the way in a desperate attempt to preserve their existing monopolies. In reality these pampered and sheltered folks are actually afraid to compete in a fair market. They are cowards.
I will close with one last thought. There is a BIG difference between competition and warfare. The evil globalists have no problem sending other people’s children off to fight and die in senseless wars whose only true purpose is to enrich themselves. There are no real rules in war—just chaos, violence, destruction, suffering, and death. Competition, on the other hand, is FUN! People like to match wits and skills with others and to play by a fair set of rules so that the best man wins. In competition, unlike war, there is almost always another day and another chance to compete again. You can learn, adapt, improvise, and try again and that leads to innovation and progress and an improvement in the human condition.
This is going to be lots of fun once we get the game board reset.