S&P 500 Futures Update

S&P 500 Futures Hourly Bars

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Does anybody else find it a little peculiar that on a day where the Russian Ambassador to Turkey (a NATO ‘ally’) was assassinated and where multiple simultaneous radical islamic terrorist attacks occurred worldwide, including a particularly heinous attack on Berlin–that with all of that…the markets were basically flat to up?  Oh, and did you know that a second high-ranking Russian diplomat, Piotr Polshikov, was also assassinated just hours after Ambassador Karlov?

My working market thesis that the pros are trapped long after the surprise election of Donald Trump is reinforced by this current (lack of) action.  If the pros had wanted to take the market down on a news cycle–it sure doesn’t get more accommodative than the events of yesterday.

Technically, the current VST trading range is 2243 to 2273 (shown by shaded blue are on hourly chart above).  The current VST range low at 2243 cannot become a valid ST pivot, but the VST range high at 2273 could still become a ST pivot high–but only if price trades below that line for the remainder of today’s session.  In order to achieve a ST higher pivot low, ES would need to dip under 2243 from the current configuration.

An eventual breakout on either side of that VST range should get traders going –but volatility is essentially frozen while within.

The key line I  pointed out in my last post (at 2242) continues to check any meaningful selling.  A move underneath would bring in selling–and perhaps lots of it, which is probably why the pros were forced to step in to protect that yesterday.  As crazy as it sounds under the circumstances–it’s all good for bulls > 2243.  A break below would target 2208.50 area unless it turns into a stop sweep/reversal trap for bears…so to make things clear, it’s all about 2243 here in the short-term.  Price action is bullish above/bearish below.

Interesting times indeed here folks.

Vigilance!

…my .02

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FOMC Announcement Day

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Today at 2 pm we get the FOMC announcement.  As per standard procedure, the market is near it’s zenith as the hour of enlightenment approaches.  Most expect a rate increase–and typically rate increases aren’t market friendly, but we’ll see how it goes.  FOMC days used to be a big market mover until many traders figured out that it was better to sit the whipsaw silliness out.

But the FOMC meeting is not the only ineresting thing going on today…

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Many of the Sea Island conspiritors have been summoned to Trump Tower today to kiss the ring and they are coming with tails tucked firmly between their legs as they face the lion.

Following is (from an excellent source) speculation for a potential reason why they may have been summoned. Could it be that President-elect Trump has  an audacious plan in the works to adroitly bypass a hostile uniparty congress to get the ball rolling immediately on his economic agenda?   If true, it’s brilliant…

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My spidey senses are telling me there’s going to be a rather unusual infrastructure bond program.  It would not surprise me to find Trump proposing a way to expedite $4 trillion in off shore corporate liquid assets getting repatriated, by offering a bond conversion with a zero to 5% income tax rate (basis), if the corporations repatriate the funds via Trump federal infrastructure bonds.

This alone funds the Trump infrastructure bill, and simultaneously initiates the southern border wall construction.

Those federal infrastructure bonds (containing repatriated revenues) could then be traded on the markets (returning capital to the bond holder – ie. the original off shore holding), allowing stock reinvestment, dividend payment or capital ependiture.    Just a spidey sense, a gut prediction, but very Trumpesque. (more)

This approach could inject, almost immediately, corporate capital assets into domestic economic development.

Trump’s infrastructure proposals begins almost immediately, and he’d essentially be putting a plan before congress that works around their ability to co-opt it with special interests – or argue about it based on spending or deficits.

The Trump domestic economic plan begins immediately; and in the longer-term congress yap’s about debates and argues the federal budget and Trump’s tax reform proposal.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy would begin almost immediate expansion.

Brilliant!

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I find it incredibly amusing to see the dinosaur media and the rest of the global socialist cabal still trying to fight the old war using Alinsky tactics all the while not realizing that they are being outsmarted and out maneuvered at every turn.  The paradigm has flipped and they are, annecdotally, the rotary dial telephone…once upon a time hip and cool and state of the art…but now outdated, irrelevant, and destined for the trash bin.  The global socialists won’t go out with a fight, but so far it has been laughably feeble.

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S&P 500 Futures Options Daily Bar/Range Chart
S&P 500 Futures Options Daily Bar/Range Chart

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The S&P 500 Futures are currently in breakout mode in all timeframes above 2208.50.  If we were to see some significant selling begin, that VST breakout line would be the target.

You can see from the chart above that absolutely no quarter has been given to any bear since the overnight Trump low of 2023.25 on election night.  This squeeze has left current VST and ST support at 2173.75 way behind.  Eventually that will need to be rectified with a pullback to at least set a higher VST pivot low with some potential to develop into a higher ST pivot low.  As I type, that minimum pullback target would be 2201.50, but if the pros elevate price or stay relatively flat–then that minimum line will tick higher in the coming days.

So that’s the layout for today.  Two days from now is quadruple-witching options expiration and then begins tax loss selling into year end.  There is certainly every reason to be cautious as we finish this week, but let’s keep an eye on Stops and Targets end of day signals to see if there are any signs of exhaustion.  From a technical perspective, watch the rising ST trendline support on the chart above–a break below there (*currently at 2242) would be the first actual sell signal for savvy traders.

…my .02

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*edit at 3:20 pm: changed value in last sentence from 2232 to 2242 to correct a typo from my morning posting–thanks to those of you who pointed that out.

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Option Rollover Day

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Today is December Option Rollover Day and volume shifts from the December 2016 to March 2017 futures option contracts today with a difference of –5.25 points from ESZ16 (December) to ESH17 (March).

All previous chart numbers have been adjusted to reflect the new contract pricing—so, for example, the short-term primary trend line from the expiring December contract at 2149.75 now becomes 2144.50, and so forth.

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I have redrawn all my charts to reflect the new contract pricing…

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S&P 500 Futures Monthly Bar Chart
S&P 500 Futures Monthly Bar Chart

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S&P 500 Futures Weekly Bar Chart
S&P 500 Futures Weekly Bar Chart

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S&P 500 Futures Daily Bar/ Range Chart
S&P 500 Futures Daily Bar/ Range Chart

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S&P 500 Futures Hourly Bar Chart
S&P 500 Futures Hourly Bar Chart

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S&P 500 Futures have been on a tear and trends in all timeframes remain up > 2173.75 (VST).  If price remains above 2173.75 for the next two trading days then the short-term primary trendline for ES (S&P 500 Futures) will move up to that line from 2144.50.

We are in new high territory, and with the December contract now rolled over and the FOMC meeting next week followed by expiration coming on the 16th, I will continue to watch for signs of exhaustion following the bodacious squeeze from election night.  An exhaustion would be indicated in Stops and Targets by unanimous index and index futures spotters and supported by very large numbers of spotters (perhaps in the 500 – 1,000+ range) in the Russell 3000 at the end of a trading day.

It’s all good above 2173.75

…my .02

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S&P 500 Futures Options Update

g5-puppets
G5 Leaders

Four Down One To Go

In the latest stunning rubuke to global socialism (the now ex) Prime Minister Mateo Renzi of Italy has just resigned following a crushing blowout defeat of Italy’s constitutional referendum.  Looks like the good people of the world aren’t having what these folks are trying to sell (steal) any longer.  Perhaps the German citizens will step up to the plate next and get rid of Merkel at their next opportunity –to make it a clean sweep of this photo collection of world ‘leaders’ taken at the April G5 Summit.

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<rant/>

As I have mentioned in previous posts, take note of the tallest structures at any particular time and place in history if you want to know who is really ‘in charge’

http://skyscrapercenter.com/buildings?list=tallest100-future

If I am right about the directions things are heading–I would expect some new buildings to appear at the top of that list in the coming years.  After all, we have a new incoming president that knows a thing or two about that particular subject.

Good times they are a coming my friends and true capitalism (not crony) is about to become ‘cool’ again.  Just watch.  And if Trump is ultimately successful in putting white-hat ‘good guys’ in positions of power and influence, be prepared to start learning some things about this outgoing bunch and their enablers in the dying dinosaur media that will horrify even the most jaded and hardened among you.

</rant>

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S&P 500 Futures-2016-12-05-at-11-52-20-am

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On the news of the Italy Referendum rejection the futures were taken down to a perfect back-kiss of VST trendline breakout and then rallied hard.

Take a look at that ridiculously-wide VST trading range (shown as a shaded gray rectangle) on the chart above.  That my friends is a righteous squeeze with absolutely no possible chance of escape for the folks who sold the Trump election news at the latest stop sweep/reversal setup that I pointed out at ES 2100.25

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S&P 500 Futures-2016-12-05-at-11-58-27-am

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And speaking of stop swep/reversals….

This is the start of the fourth week since the Trump election win bottom at 2028.50.  If price holds above that line through the close on Friday we will have the official ninth perfect stop sweep/reversal entry since 2009 using the weekly paradigm chart above.  This has been like shooting fish in a barrel the past seven years–and that is perhaps the only thing I will miss when the worst president in US history (it’s not even close) is ingloriously shown the exit on January 20th.

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<rant2/>

Now here’s an interesting thought to ponder for you armchair constitutional scholars out there… what do you suppose would happen if it can be proven that the outgoing US president was actually ineligible by virtue of being foreign-born (Kenya)?  Would everthing he has signed suddenly become null and void?  How about his incompetent supreme court nominations?  Would they be rquired to vacate their seats?  Hmm.  Things could get very interesting shortly…just sayin’.  If you wonder why the dying dinosaur media and the globalists are all freaking out and breaking cover–well, just think about what that could mean for so many things… like pardons and blanket citizenship grants for example, the list is endless and much of the damage that this caliphate-owned clown has done could potentially be undone relatively quickly.  Perhaps Dearborn Michigan (watch this video) and other third world hellholes within our national borders could be repatriated and resettled by actual Americans.  That would be nice. 

</rant2>

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S&P 500 Futures-2016-12-05-at-12-22-39-pm

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We are still on track for the 5 wave projection target shown on the monthly chart above and explained in previous posts here.  Almost everyone expects something to change in the paradigm with the US presidential administration change, but Trump is reportedly talking with Goldman Sachs and other major players–so we’ll see how this all shakes out in the coming months.

The big thing I continue to watch for as the market explores new all-time highs is a sign of exhaustion, which could be indicated by masive numbers of cash and futures indexes and Russell 3000 top spotters on a day when everyone is fully-bullish and feeling good.  If/when that happens, Stops and Targets will detect and show that development first on the End of Day Summary at this link:

https://stopsandtargets.com/members/signals/summary.php

…and I will point it out here within a day or two afterwards.

It’s all good here for bulls until/unless we get confirmed spotter signals–or until we start seeing counter-trend sell signals on Stops and Targets.

…my .02

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