S&P 500 Futures Setup

I have had a flurry of comments and great questions directed my way since the election.  Mostly, the themes have been ‘where do we go from here?’ and ‘what’s the deal with the huge futures ranges on election night?’.

Let’s start addressing those questions by looking first at Stops and Targets’ automated analysis…

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S&P 500 Futures-2016-11-16-at-9-49-52-am

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As always, my eye starts on the ‘head’s up display’ chart at the right…

I see that on the primary trendlines that ST is over IT, and IT is over LT, and last price is over ST.  That tells me that the market is in the most bullish ‘Bull 10’ configuration.  I also see the intraday top spotter line, but so far that doesn’t mean anything until/unless it is still there at the close of the current bar trading session at 4:15 pm.

Next my eyes move to the signals block at the upper center of the page and I see that we have two ‘TODAY’ notifications…an intermediate ‘red’ signal and a short-term ‘green’ signal.  So, the next move for me is to open the intermediate tab to see what that signal is all about…

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S&P 500 Futures at Stops and Targets-2016-11-16-at-10-26-05-am

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I see that the S&P 500 futures perfectly touched resistance at 2185, which created a ‘sell partials’ signal to take partial profits from the last buy signal at 2100.25.  That’s an 85.25 point gain, so a trader who got in at the last signal (the stop sweep/reversal setup I pointed out here) is pretty darned happy right about now.  Next I note where the ideal buy zone is located, which is shaded green on the chart and also shown as text at the right side under the ‘ideal entry zone:’ entry.  The top of that zone would be the most likely target of a serious (intermediate) counter-trend pullback, if one were to develop.

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Next I open the short-term tab to investigate the other green TODAY signal from the summary tab…

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S&P 500 futures Stops and Targets ST-2016-11-16-at-10-35-43-am

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Hey, lookie there… it’s a bounce off short-term confirmed support at 2172.75 and price is inside the ideal buy zone.  Since the risk/reward setup is technically ‘GOOD‘ we also see a suggestion for initial protective stop placement at the ‘risk/reward ratio:’ entry on the left side of the page.  The Stops and Targets main idea here is to only enter trades where there is a 1:3 risk reward ratio.  In other words, you can theoretically lose three times against one win if you have perfect trade discipline and still break even.  Of course there are always slippage and trade costs to consider–but you get the general idea… trade with the trend, manage risk, and take profits along the way is the theme that seasoned pros adhere to.

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So, at a glance and with two tab pokes we now have the big picture firmly in hand for the S&P 500 futures options.  It is currently a fully bullish market with a touch of the top of the range (also all-time high) and with some profit-taking back to short-term support.

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Let’s now compare what Stops and Targets is saying to my charts and see if it all agrees and also if we can pick up any further subtleties….

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S&P 500 Futures daily bar range chart-2016-11-16-at-10-50-13-am

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The trading ranges all line up.  The lightest yellow shading is the long-term range and we can see that it is indeed in breakout mode since 2077.75.

The next darker shading is the intermediate range and we can see illustrated exactly what I speculated would happen before the election and that is a run of the stops on both sides of that intermediate range.  We got the stop sweep/reversal at 2100.25 and then the silly overnight election bar made that a double sweep.  Now we are tapping on the door of the last bearish stops that are no doubt sitting just above the all-time high at 2185 (today’s high, so far).

The bright-yellow-shaded short-term range along with the gray-shaded very short term range are both ridiculously wide due to the 138 point wide bar from election night.  Eventually, we would expect a VST pullback and then a ST pullback in order to set up higher pivot lows.  The touch this morning at intermediate resistance was the first potential spot for that pullback to occur, but it’s always a good idea to have a look at one more place when you are dealing with the pros…

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screen-shot-2016-11-16-at-11-02-13-am

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Click on the image above and the economic calendar will open in a new tab in your browser.  Pay special attention to tomorrow’s lineup.

Tomorrow is a big day for the FED, and you know how they like to puff out their chest and flex their market-controlling muscle, especially when the queen herself is set to speak.  And there is that Fed Balance sheet thingy at 4:30 pm.  Are you catching my drift here?

And last, but certainly not least…Friday is November options expiration day.  Uh huh!  Yep, and guess which side the pros are undoubtedly positioned on?

Which brings me to my answer to questions on the meaning of the wide election day bar.  It is my thesis that the pros were all-in speculating that Hillary was going to be elected.  I think they were caught on the wrong side of the market and had no choice but to step in and juice the market after the natural reaction of real traders was to sell.  The pros HAD to save their positions, and comically, they also HAVE to send the market up on the President-elect Trump news.  That is definitely NOT what they wanted to do, but by letting the market initially sell off and then saving it before the cash markets opened that was the best they could do to send a signal while not hurting themselves.

So, in conclusion, this is all playing out just have I have been speculating on for a very long time now.  The only thing missing, and the cherry on the top, would be a push into new all-time highs with a massive bearish capitulation that would be signaled by unanimous top spotter signals across the indexes and supported by huge numbers of Russell 3000 issues.  Really…could it be that easy?  Maybe (but probably not).  We’ll see what happens if/when we get into new highs territorry.  For right now though, we have some profit taking at the boundary and then tomorrow we get the royal proclamation from folks who are no doubt VERY uncomfortable with the idea that a new President might just want to take a little look at the books.

For those of you who want to know if there is an additional risk for swift downside due to the wide election day bar sweeping away support–remember that all happened overnight when the cash markets were closed.  That anomaly doesn’t even register on the ‘real’ market.  As I have been saying for some time now…the key hard deck support number is ES 2100.25 for the current paradigm that has been in play since 2009.  I would expect the eventual formation of a higher short-term pivot low, since the current range is so wide but yes, these are indeed exciting times and it will be very interesting to see what happens as we approach the end of the worst Presidential administration in American history and watch closely to see how that affects a great, but completely engineered, stock market rally since 2009.

…my .02

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Post Election Analysis

clintonprosperity
I think the picture above sums things up nicely.

 

Life is about making choices and a huge decision was made last night by American voters.  On January 20, President-elect Trump will be sworn in along with Republican party control of the US House and the US Senate.  That means that the Supreme Court will almost certainly swing away from judicial activism and toward strict constitutionalism as multiple justices are expected to be replaced during the coming presidential term.

This is the second American Revolution and the results are, in my opinion, akin to ‘the shot heard around the world‘.  We are witnessing the impending death of worldwide global socialism and a changing of the old guard, who have been miserable failures almost everywhere you look by any rational measure.

For those of us who were around when Reagan was elected–this all feels very familiar.  Jimmy Carter, who was then the worst-ever President, was soundly defeated by a man who was mercilessly attacked by the media and establishment.  And in the same way today as then–the scare-mongering presstitutes and the establishment politicians were soundly rebuked by a populist candidate supported by the silent majority.  During the campaign, Reagan was loathed by the left and also by many on the GOPe right–just as was Trump.  But Reagan, like Trump, had a gift of winning over his detractors and turning former enemies into friends.  I think Trump is a similar sort of man.  Many people who hate him today will eventually come around, and that is my prediction.

The old game had grown stale and there was no further upside for the globalists under Clinton.  ‘The problem with socialism‘, as Margaret Thatcher once observed, ‘is that eventually they run out of other people’s money’.  With America now following Great Britain’s stunning Brexit–the global islamification of the world will no doubt stop.  Similar to the aftermath of the first American revolution, citizens of other nations, such as Germany, will now rise up and depose the despots that have been willfully destroying the lives, security, prosperity, and happiness of their citizenry.

There is an entire generation of young people today who have been propagandized by the socialist public education system and know nothing of the prescient brilliance of our nation’s founding fathers. Our Founding Father’s foresight in setting up the foundations of this country allow a peaceful transition of power without a single shot being fired.  Because of our unique form of governance, America is a special place and Americans are a special people.  I personally look forward to an end of the evil politics of hatred and division, brought to it’s lowest and most loathsome form under the Clinton/Bush crime syndicate.  I eagerly anticipate the coming explosion of innovation and prosperity as this country comes together again as one nation and one diverse people–and for the amazing investment opportunities that engenders.  The Reagan years were great for everyone.  Trust me, this is going to be FUN!

So yeah, there will be some whining from the America haters, but screw ’em.  We’ve all got lots of work to do going forward… as we collectively roll up our sleeves to Make America Great Again!

</rant>

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Let’s keep the analysis short and sweet today…

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S&P 500 Futures weekly bars 11-9-16

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Just as I pointed out recently–on the weekly chart (above) we have the expected stop sweep/reversal centering on 2100.25.  The weekly bar road map paradigm that has been in place since 2009 continues.

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S&P 500 Futures daily bars 11-9-16

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The pros are doing just what I speculated they would (but with much more dramatic flair) by running both sides of the intermediate trading range around the presidential election.  Price is currently paused at ST primary trend line resistance (2149.75) but a break of the ST trendline resistance hints at a possible move higher–if so, the target would be new all-time highs.  Intermediate primary trendline support at ES 2100.25 remains the hard deck.

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Stops and Targets S&P 500 Futures screen-shot-2016-11-09-at-12-07-14-pm

You have to love the absolute ruthlessness of the pros.  ES has more than a 130 point range and >6% rise off the bottom so far today–and that equates to a 1,000 point range for the Dow futures!  Let’s watch and see how it closes today… but the pros are having some fun here and clever traders are making some serious profits around this election setup.

The short-term timeframe is in play and the bull/bear line now is 2149.75 for the remainder of the trading day.

…my .02

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Options 26 Point Opening Gap!

Okay, what follows is my pre-election rant.  For those of you who are sick of politics, or are fans of HRC, you might want to skip past this until you find my usual chart analysis starting below ‘</rant>’.  Remember, you were warned…  😉

 

After news broke that Hillary Clinton will escape prosecution by the FBI and the DOJ for her latest scandal, her pals made a statement by driving the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Options up 26 points in the thinly traded overnight session.  That futures jam has lead to more than 300 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average as I type.

I have stated here many times that futures options are the tail that wags the dog in the financial world.  Here is yet another demonstration of that principle.  It certainly appears that the entire globalist socialist world has aligned behind their chosen candidate and knowing that…it is absolutely stunning that the race is even close considering the powerful forces aligned by the elitists and their ragtag alliance of government-dependent miscreants on the one side against the common man and taxpayers on the other.

You readers would scarcely believe the (mostly good-natured–but at other times downright ugly) abuse I have taken from friends and family over my support of the anti-globalist in this election.  I dared to speak out early on amongst polite company about my reasons for choosing against the establishment choice.  Now, understand that most of the people I run with are very successful and many are wealthy individuals.  Each of them has prospered tremendously in their investments since 2009 and they realize that the safest choice to keep the current gravy train running is the candidate who undoubtedly has the support of every denizen of Hell and Satan himself.

Consider that the HRC campaign has had thousands of people combing through every record, every past transaction, interviewing every past acquaintance–and the best they can throw at the opposing candidate is a frat boy braggadocio video engaging with a member of the Bush clan followed by some obviously fake and easily debunked claims.  Really, that’s all they have?

Now, HRC’s many many MANY scandals are well-known by us old-timers, but much less so by the young delicate snowflakes spawned by the socialist controlled public school and college propaganda mills.  It matters not to an immoral people that their ‘leader’ has publicly broken every last commandment of morality…and then laughed at all of us as she repeatedly skates away unscathed as others suffer and die.  What may be less known to many out there are the satanic connections of this bunch…don’t believe me?  Google the term ‘spirit cooking’ and then get back to me.  If that isn’t enlightening (and disgusting) enough then try looking up Jeffrey Epstein.  Still not enough?  How about following up by reading this thread on the Wikileaks investigations at: https://sli.mg/a/hhe7CP  Even the most debased among us surely opposes pedophilia.  If you read this and still vote for that despicable woman, then please don’t try to pass yourself off as a ‘good person’ ever again–because what you truly are is an enabler and an endorser of pure evil.

John Adams wrote in 1815 that by his reckoning there were about one-third equal parts of loyalist, patriots, and undecideds during the first American Revolution.  My assumption is that we are likely sitting on a roughly equal distribution today ahead of the election.  The ‘loyalists’ today give their allegiance to the global socialist new world order where a very few control nearly everything.  The loyalists today, like their eighteenth-century counterparts, like their comfortable lifestyle and don’t want to upset the status quo.  The ‘patriots’ of today are those who love their country and the moral principles it was founded upon.  They just want to see a sense of fair play returned and loathe the elites who see themselves as above the law.  The ‘undecideds’ are those who lack the mental or moral fortitude to choose a side for themselves and are instead driven by herd mentality and a desperate need to be accepted by the ‘cool kids’ (who still think they are idiots and laugh at them behind their backs).

Win or lose tomorrow, it is absolutely stunning that one man has taken on the entire establishment–who currently control entire governments, the world’s media, the banks, the financial markets, almost every major corporation, and on and on.  We are going to find out a lot about ourselves in the results tomorrow.

I love this quote (which I have slightly modified)…

You pundits just don’t get it.  Trump isn’t just our candidate, he’s our murder weapon and the entire global socialist elite establishment is our intended victim.  Are we good now?

No matter what happens, the sun will still rise the next morning on November 9th and we will all carry on with our lives.  But it will be a very different future depending upon which candidate wins.  It has been a VERY long time since this country has had a true choice that was not a ‘head’s we win, tails you lose’ illusion of hand-picked and pre-selected puppets. This year was supposed to be Jeb versus Hillary.  They are just two sides of the same globalist-loving Uniparty coin.  Trump screwed it all up for them and they are NOT happy about it.  My thesis is that Hillary was always supposed to be the designated loser in this campaign.  She was the only candidate that a low energy dolt like Jeb could have beaten.  Trump likely had the inside scoop of the arrangement beforehand and made his move to cut Jeb out of the deal in the primary.  Hillary was supposed to be weakened by Sanders but limp through to be ‘beaten’ by Jeb, and the Republicans were to get their turn driving the Washington DC Uniparty.  That’s why GOPe never-Trumpers like Bush, Romney, Ryan, et Al are so ticked off.  Trump has outplayed these feckless suckers at every turn.  He has also outed the globalists in such a way that they will never again be able to play the old comfortable game as they have.

So, that’s my pre-election rant.

</rant>

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And now, with my pre-election rant finished…let’s take a look at the broad market using the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures in multiple timeframes, starting with hourly bars and progressing out to monthly bars on the last chart…

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E-Mini S&P 500 futures screen-shot-2016-11-07-at-11-48-24-am

 

The hourly-bar chart above shows overhead resistance on the latest stop sweep/reversal play presaged in my last post.

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Stops and Targets S&P 500 Futures 11-7-16

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Stops and Targets screen shot above shows the opening gap into a buy zone targeting 2185, but the trend would reverse on a move back under the key line of 2100.25.  This is a classic stop sweep/reversal play but with the added twist of a giant gap up to trap the unfortunate bears who shorted into the stop sweep.

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Stops and Targets S&P 500 futures screen-shot-2016-11-07-at-11-55-29-am

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Daily bar/range chart shows the gap-and-go move and resistance points at the ST trident channel (dashed dark red) and short-term trendline resistance (solid red trendline).

The short-term primary trend line is currently at 2149.75.  That is the line the pros would eventually need to take out to officially reverse the downtrend.

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Stops and Targets weekly bar ES futures screen-shot-2016-11-07-at-12-00-11-pm

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Here is the weekly bar ‘roadmap’ chart that has accurately predicted every major buy setup since the start of this engineered bull market in 2009.  Point number 9 was pointed out in my last post.  This is a classic stop sweep/reversal setup and if 2100.25 holds up as support then new all-time highs would be the next target.

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S&P 500 E-Mini futures screen-shot-2016-11-07-at-12-06-41-pm

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And finally, the monthly bar chart above shows the structure that I believe the pros have been building since 2009.  If the market continues to new highs, then the ultimate projected time/price target is ES 2525 (continuous contract pricing) around April of 2018.

…my .02

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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Paradigm Alert!

I have been talking a lot lately about the importance of the 2100.25 support level of the S&P E-mini Futures Options (symbol: @ES at Stops and Targets).  Today that support level has been breached.  If you are currently holding stocks in the broad market then you might want to sit up and pay close attention right here because there are only two paths going forward…

  1. This is another stop sweep/reversal play.
  2. This is a key break of support that could potentially signal the end of the paradigm that has been in play since 2009 at the start of the Obama Caliphate.

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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures – Weekly Bar Chart

S&P 500 E Mini Futures Option Weekly Bars 11-1-2016

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Option 1…

If this turns out to be another stop sweep/reversal buy setup, it would be the unprecedented (since 2009) third in a row!  Points 7, 8, and now 9 on the chart above show the last three instances where ES price has dipped below the last higher 4-bar pivot low on the weekly chart.  As the numbered events show, this has only happened a grand total of nine times in 7 years.  In every instance except two (at points 2 and 6) we have seen an almost immediate reversal after the stops under the pivot low have been run.  At the two exceptions, we saw a deep and rapid decline in price.

What we are watching for now is very simple… price action is bearish below 2100.25 (the stop sweep), but will reverse to bullish on a move back above (the reversal).

 

Option 2…

As I have warned many times here… if we get a break below the last weekly 4-bar pivot low that is not reversed–it will be a sign that the paradigm that has been predictably chugging along since 2009 may be ending.  If we do not get a recovery from this break under 2100.25 either immediately–or after a snap-back rally that cannot break through confirmed resistance at that line then this market will be entering a decline/correction phase that could be precipitous.  If you are serious about protecting those hard-earned profits that have accrued in this amazing run then do not freeze in the headlights here and be sure to honor your stops if this market cannot recover back above ES 2100.25.

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Stops and Targets S&P 500 E-Mini Analysis 11-1-2016

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Head’s up right here everyone.  At a minimum, we are guaranteed to get a new lower pivot low on the weekly chart, and that’s not typically bullish unless the pros are intent on running both sides of the intermediate range (2100.25 to 2185) as a strategy to game the upcoming elections.  Intermediate-term price action going forward is bullish above 2100.25 and flips to bearish below.

…my .02

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