Russell Rebalancing Complete – Paradigm Check

The Russell 3000 components for 2016 have been rebalanced/reconstituted and are updated at Stops and Targets.  The following links show added and deleted companies as well as a comprehensive overview of the state of the markets.

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Final Russell 3000 Deletions:

2016 Russell Deletions

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Final Russell 3000 Additions:

Russell 3000 Additions

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Russell 3000 Analysis:

2016 Russell Rebalancing Analysis

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Excerpt from the analysis link above…

This year’s reconstitution marked a shrinking US market, with the total market cap of the Russell 3000 Index down by roughly 5% since last year’s rebalance.  Globally, market size is down by roughly 10% since last year’s reconstitution, with the Russell Global Index now representing $55.6 trillion in total market cap compared to last year’s size of $61.5 trillion.  In the US, the breakpoint between large cap and small cap has dropped for the first time since 2012, decreasing by nearly 15% from $3.4 billion in 2015 to $2.9 billion.  The breakpoint between large cap and small cap for the Russell Global ex-US Index is down, too, now set at $2.1 billion compared with last year’s break of $2.3 billion.

…wow!

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Screen Shot 2016-06-28 at 9.44.36 AM

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After the Russell rebalancing/Brexit fun–let’s take a look at the market-rigging paradigm that has been in place since 2009…

On the weekly bar chart above, counting the current setup, there have now been only eight instances over the past seven years where we have seen price dip below the last four-bar pivot low.  Each occurrence is numbered on the chart above.  In every instance except for two (highlighted in yellow at points 2 and 6) the pros have used these dips as stop sweep/reversal setups.  A buy at points 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 were all ideal entries that led to huge gains…and we have pointed out each and every one of them right here!

Recently, I have been pointing out the importance of ES 2013 in the ongoing paradigm.  Let’s watch carefully now to see if the pros turn this into buy signal point #8.  That is the odds on favorite considering past behavior–but eventually the paradigm that has been in place since 2009 will end.  We will know that has happened if/when price is unable to quickly recover and sustain above the last pivot low, which in this case is ES 2013.  Very simply stated–market momentum in the intermediate term is bullish above 2013, but bearish below…and you can study the chart at the numbered points above to see the implication of that statement.  Pretty cool, eh?

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Stops and Targets agrees with my chart analysis on the intermediate importance of ES 2013, which is exactly where price is as I type.

…my .02

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ES Update — Brexit and Russell Rebalancing

Today Britain voted to leave the European Union.  The pros, ever and always predatory opportunists, have been having some fun with the futures.  Let’s take a ‘Big Picture’ look at the current technical setup of the ES (S&P 500 futures option) starting from the monthly bars and working back in to the shorter timeframes…

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The monthly chart above shows the game here.  The pros have run the stops on both sides of the last quarter of trading to take advantage of the Brexit vote.  First they took out the bears above 2110.75 with a run up to 2119.50 (just 3.75 points shy of the time/price projection from way back in 2012) and then they took out the bulls underneath 2013 with a run down to 1999.  Standard pro/goon playbook action here, so far.  Keep 2013 in mind, because that is the key number going forward…

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Moving in to the weekly bar chart, which has been a perfect roadmap of the precise market engineering that has been going on since 2009…we can see that the overnight dip has created for only the 8th time since 2009 another potential stop sweep/reversal setup.  That line at 2013 is now the whole ballgame going forward.  Remember what I have been saying… the paradigm in place since 2009 will only end when we see a last pivot taken out to the downside that DOES NOT recover back above that line.  If/when that happens the market will start the lower high/lower low sequence of a bearish correction.  Until/unless that happens, though, this is just business as usual for the pros.  So, 2013 is the Big Picture bull/bear line going forward.  It is bear country below 2013–but remains bullish paradigm/market-rigging territory above.

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Moving in now to the daily bar/range chart it is very interesting that last night’s takedown went exactly to the original sell signal after the double top at 1999, which is intermediate-term support and is also where the long sideways consolidation began.  The pros took out ST trendline support, ST range support, and intermediate range support overnight.  All of those places were the location of bull stops–but they did not go below that 1999 original sell signal.

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And finally, we zoom in to the hourly bars.  The double stop run strategy is obvious here and the pros have accomplished exactly what they wanted on a very convenient day for them (Russell 300 Rebalancing).  Just for fun, let’s see if they eventually pin the price around the midpoint of the current daily range between 1999 and 2119.50, which is 2059.25

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As I type, ES is back to a fully-bullish ‘Bull 1o’ Stops and Targets rating with price trading above all three primary trend lines.  There is also an intraday top spotter signal, but let’s see how the day closes.  It’s all about 2013 here in the near term as we key in on the weekly bar paradigm chart for clues.

…my .02

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ES Update

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In my last post I pointed out in real-time the short-term support target near the 2039 area.  The VST low formed at 2040.75 right on cue.

Since then we have seen two upside breakaway gaps (2059.75 and 2077) as the pros high-tailed it back to the 2096.25 line where we got the last counter-trend sell signal.  That should be the line in play for the rest of the trading day.

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358B6BD200000578-3650396-image-a-45_1466611272224

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Today is the Brexit vote.  Polls close at 10 PM in the UK and the graphic above serves as a timeline for the events that follow.  A vote to leave the EU would have world-wide repercussions.  The global socialists will stop at nothing in an attempt to assure that the UK remains, but it will be interesting to see if the masses have had enough over there…assuming, of course, that the vote is counted fairly, which reminds me of a quote…

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“It is enough that the people know there was an election.  The people who cast the votes decide nothing.  The people who count the votes decide everything.”

-Joseph Stalin

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In my last post I mentioned that what really mattered last week was holding above 2013 on the weekly bar low.  That happened, and so we now have a new higher pivot low on the weekly bar roadmap that has served us so well since the Obama/ARRA kickoff back in 2009 at the end of the secular bear market.  The pros have been using four bar weekly pivots to engineer the amazing futures-led rally since ES 480.25 (adjusted for continuous contract pricing).  ES 2013 now becomes the latest stairstep in the sequence that has only seen seven events since 2009 where price has dropped below the last pivot low.  In 5 out of 7 of those events–it was a stop sweep/reversal buy (see points 1,3,4,5,7 on the chart above).  At the other two (points 2 and 6) those were pullbacks consistent with ‘corrective’ waves two and four of a five wave impulse.

For those of you who are playing along with the pros–that means it is time to move protective stops up to 2013 to lock in gains from the most recent stop sweep/reversal major buy at point #7 pointed out here in real-time at ES 1784.25

The paradigm in place since 2009 continues on unabated until we see a break below the last pivot low that does not recover above that line.  When that eventually happens it will be the start of a lower high/lower low bearish sequence and I will point it out here.

If we get a breakout and run to new highs here–I will be watching Stops and Targets for an eventual top spotter signal that is ideally unanimous across the indexes and index futures and confirmed by massive numbers of Russell 3000 top spotters.  That will be the first clue that the market is finally exhausted.

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…speaking of Russell 3000 stocks!  Tomorrow at the close the final membership list of the new Russell 3000 will be released.  Stops and Targets will implement that revised list over the weekend–adding the new additions and removing the deletions.  So, do you think that the Brexit hoopla coinciding with the Russell Indexes rebalancing is mere coincidence?

I don’t.

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2016-06-16 at 9.57.19 AM

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We are almost to the ST (short-term) trendline support target that I pointed out in my last post.  That rising trendline is currently at the 2039 area.   Just below the trendline is the S&T ideal buy zone located between 2021.50 and 2033.50.

The pros ran the bear stops above 2096.25 –and have been pushing down since.  ES 2013 is the key line for this week, as we wait to see if the pros will set a new higher pivot low on the weekly bars.

So, head’s up right here…

…my .02

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ES Update

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In my last post I pointed out that in the event of a countertrend sell at 2096.25 the probable downside target would be the bottom rail of the purple channel.  As I type, that rising trendline is currently at 2073.75.  Just underneath is the top of the old ST range at 2069.75.  If those support levels fail to generate a bounce then the next major target lower would be rising ST trendline support.  Keeping the Big Picture in mind…any pullback that remains above 2013 by the end of this trading week will give us a new higher pivot low on the weekly roadmap chart (see my previous post).

If the pros wanted to take this market down they certainly had an opportunity to do so with the tragic mass-shooting event occurring in Orlando over the weekend–so keep that in mind.

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The Bilderberg folks met in Dresden over the weekend to decide the next moves for advancing their dream of global socialism.

The following graphic showing the incestuous interconnectivity of that network is making its’ way around the Internet.  I make no guarantees about the accuracy of the information contained–but find it strangely fascinating to look at nonetheless.

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bilderberg-group_1

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We also have the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting tomorrow with the interest rate proclamation coming at 2 pm on Wednesday, so it could be an interesting week ahead.

…my .02

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