ES Update

Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 10.29.40 AM

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Yesterday’s dip went straight to filling the open gap I pointed out at 2044.25.  The pros ran the stops under the 11/17 low and then reversed.  The old VST support at 2065.50 became first new resistance and price, as I type, is currently above that line.  So far the thesis I posited yesterday is playing out.  Anyone who chased that short setup yesterday under 2065.50 is now underwater on the trade so we have a squeeze going here.

The unemployment numbers released this morning are pure fantasy, of course.  The real unemployment rate is likely well into double digits with record numbers of Americans not participating in the labor force.  Couple that with an exploding segment of the population receiving means-tested welfare benefits and the real economic health of the US is likely quite precarious–but reality based on hard facts isn’t a strong forte of the current US regime.

The next target higher is the preliminary ST bearish trident channel top rail, shown as a descending dashed red trendline on the chart above and currently near the 2094 area.  If price gets back up to that line, we could see more sellers come in–but for now this remains a range-bound market in all timeframes…

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Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 11.11.35 AM

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Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 11.14.31 AM

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I have updated the daily bar/trading range chart above to show the current macro setup.  Yesterday not only did they fill the hidden gap on the hourly chart–they also ran stops under the ST trendline along with the stops under the 11/17 low.

The current VST bull/bear line remains at 2065.50 as we wait to see if yesterday’s low at 2040 will first become a new lower VST low–and if that holds, eventually a new higher ST pivot low.

The VST setup would reverse back to bearish on a dip back below resistance at 2065.50–otherwise, the next upside target for the pros will be to eventually exceed 2105 and build a higher ST pivot high to go with a new higher ST pivot low at 2040.  For now, the pros seem quite content to run out the clock inside a contracting range in an otherwise dull market–but when that changes, I will update the targets here.

…my .02

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