ES Update

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In my last post I pointed out the ideal buy zones that were lined up around the 2061 short-term primary trend line.  That all worked out quite nicely and so the next target higher on that chart was the short-term bearish trident channel top rail (shown as a dashed red line on the hourly chart above).  That line is providing some early resistance today as we get some profit taking there by savvy VST traders.

The pros often love to bait in bears at setups like this, only to later break out and run higher–but we’ll see how this pullback from the trident top rail goes.  For the counter-trend type A’s out there, 2104.25 can work as an intraday bull/bear line.  A successful pullback will next target the 2078 area.  Any move back above 2104.25 and a breakout of that trident top rail will start a cover-buying rout to the upside.

On the daily bar chart at the top you can see that we are compressing into a triangle between two currently valid trident channels…the bullish trident is green and the bearish is red.  So, let’s see how this bearish trident channel resolves here.

…my .02

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ES Update

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So far, so good at the ideal buy zones.  Yesterday ES bounced off ST support at 2061 multiple times.

Early trading range today was between 2061 and 2078 (the old VST range breakout line), but the real constraining range is actually yesterday’s bar high and low between 2080.75 and 2056.50, respectively.  A breakout on either side of yesterday’s range could get things rolling, one way or the other.

All trends remain up > 2061

Today starts the latest FOMC meeting shindig and tomorrow we get the proclamation at 2 pm.

…my .02

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ES Update

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ES has now made it back to the overlapping ideal entry zones for ST and IT.  If it is going to bounce, this would be the most likely spot.

Next targets below are…

-bullish trident channel bottom rail, currently near 2054
-IT primary trend line at 2049.25
-open gap at 2041.25
-rising ST trendline support, currently near 2037
-and finally, the ST range bottom at 2034.25

If they take out 2034.25, there are likely large numbers of trailing stops for bulls located just underneath.  If the pros decide to go there, then 2034.25 would become a potential stop sweep/reversal candidate.

If we do get a bounce, a short squeeze could potentially take us back up to test 2126.25 if there are enough bears on board to fuel it.  If not, then the bears are back in business under 2034.25

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2015-07-24 at 9.40.06 AM

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Pullback targets are shown on the hourly bar chart above…

Top of the ideal entry zone for ST is 2076.25 and for IT is 2068.50.  ST trend support is at 2061 and IT is at 2049.25

…my .02

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ES Update

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ES tagged IT resistance at 2126.25, to the penny, and is currently in a pullback from that line.  I think it is interesting that the pros stopped right at resistance, rather than taking out the resting stops just above.  That’s generally not a bearish sign when they do that.

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Apple guided down a bit last night on future earnings, which is a big reason for today’s gap down opening…

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The opening gap line is at 2114.50

Underneath, there isn’t much to shoot for until the top of ‘bear island’ at 2083.25.  Any bears who shorted after the opening gap on 6/26 and didn’t cover on the breakout at that line on 7/13 would be trapped on that ‘island’.  There would seem to be no reason for the pros to revisit that area under the line if the intent is to continue supporting this market higher at critical junctures, as has been the policy since 2009.

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Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 9.51.03 AM

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With the recent pullback to 2034.25, the pros now have in place the next potential ‘higher low’ in the weekly roadmap paradigm that I have written about many times.  We need two more weeks plus the remainder of this one before that last higher low way down at 1946.25 can move up to 2034.25.

Remember, the 2009 Obama/ARRA market-rigging paradigm won’t end until/unless we see a break below the last higher low in this weekly bar sequence that does not immediately recover.

The next target lower is the top of the ideal entry zone at 2076.25, which lines up with the top of the old VST range at 2078.  All trends remain up > 2061, so this is so far just a garden variety ST pullback until/unless we start breaking support underneath.

…my .02

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