We got a little excitement overnight in the futures–with ES down as much as -41.50 points, for a provisional low of 2054
So, let’s take a look at ES starting from the monthly bars and working our way back in for the proper perspective…
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This month is almost finished, but so far June is painting an inside bar. The May low was at 2049.25 and that would be the big number to keep an eye on if we were to get a break below the overnight low at 2054. It has been seven months since a previous monthly low was broken, so if that were to happen then it would definitely be an eyebrow raiser.
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The weekly bar chart gets a little more interesting…
This is the Obama paradigm ‘roadmap’, and we can see something a little different going on here recently. The red and green dots represent four bar pivots–and that is what I am keeping a close eye on. During the recent stall in momentum, we saw three consecutive pivot highs form–but we are still waiting on the next higher pivot low to form in the ongoing sequence, which is very extended from the last higher low at 1946.25.
As I have pointed out in previous posts, ES 2061 was a candidate for a new higher pivot low–but that got taken out on the gap overnight, so now we reset that cycle clock and keep a close eye on what happens next. The overnight low at 2054 now becomes very important in the coming days. If they can hold off additional selling then eventually, that could become a new higher low in the sequence–but we will need to watch very carefully how the pros deal with this gap. If we do get more downside–I have left that ledge at 2023 marked as a location for a potential stop trove raid.
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Zooming in to the daily bar/range chart we can see that the pros popped and reversed on the ST/IT trendline support again after running stops just under the short-term range bottom.
The breakaway gap to be filled is at 2095.75. Underneath, the intermediate range bottom is at 2049.25, and that is the line that would have to be broken to draw in a new round of sellers.
As of today, the minimum pullback target to set an eventual higher long-term low is at 2025.75, but that will start to ratchet higher in the coming days. Again, it’s hard to ignore the potential for forcing sellers under the ledge at 2023, should the pros decide to take this down for a much-needed reset. Rising long-term trendline support is currently near 1985, and we know how the pros love to break those trendiness and then reverse.
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Moving in closer to the hourly bars…
We can see two consecutive opening gaps at 2105.25 and 2095.50. Breakaway gaps show intent by the pros and clearly they are pushing it down on purpose.
It should be noted that today is the first day that the new reconstituted Russell 3000 index trades. Some of the deepest pockets and also easiest to abuse–are the funds who track the indexes. Those managers are forced to buy and sell around rebalancing–and so why wouldn’t the pros hold the market up to sell to them at nosebleed prices? The financial media wants you to focus on tiny little Greece, of course. 😉
The intraday bull/bear line is the overnight low at 2054. So long as that holds, we have a stop sweep/reverse play and all trends remain up above the ST range bottom, which aligns closely at 2061
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.Looks like I am on the same page as Stops and Targets (see blue highlights on the screen capture above).
Fine tuning to hourly bars–it’s all about 2054 (overnight low) to the downside and 2095.50 (gap fill) to the upside.
…my .02
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