ES Update

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Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 10.05.25 AM

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June option expiration day is tomorrow and the FOMC results were released yesterday–with the predictable intervention jam after the announcement to push up and through short-term resistance at 1947.50

That line at 1947.50 now becomes the first potential counter-trend sell line for ES in the short-term.  VST trend support is now at 1917.50 and it would likely take a move under that line to lure leery bears back into short positions.

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Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 9.34.14 AM

It would take a move under 1851.75 to flip the short-term trend, but ES is trending above the counter-trend sell line at 1947.50, with those two points defining the old ST range.

 

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 9.40.13 AM

Taking a look at the monthly charts–it is evident that the market continues to be on a tear since the VST trendline breakout in November of 2012.  It would take a move under 1914 to turn the current monthly candle body black.

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Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 9.47.24 AM

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The weekly ‘roadmap’ chart above shows just how the market has been carefully engineered higher by perhaps the most corrupt American administration ever to infest high office (and that is really saying something).  Nothing in the paradigm changes until we get a higher low that is broken without recovery.  Currently the last higher low was at 1796 and the current weekly minimum pullback to create a new higher low would be 1857.50

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Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 9.59.00 AM

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The daily range bar chart above shows the breakout of the ST range at 1947.50 and the VST range support at 1917.50.  Everything remains bullish until/unless those lines are broken to the downside.  ES 1917.50 is the current minimum pullback that would be required to set a higher ST low.

The trend is your friend until it ain’t.

…my .02

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Option Rollover Day

Volume shifts from the June 2014 to September 2014 futures option contracts today with a difference of –7.25 points from ESM14 (June) to ESU14 (September).

All previous chart numbers have been adjusted to reflect the new contract pricing—so, for example, the first confirmed support target on the hourly bar chart from the expiring June contract at 1924.25 now becomes 1917, and so forth.

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Screen Shot 2014-06-12 at 2.13.13 PM

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Speaking of that first VST support target at 1917…we are nearing it presently from the pullback starting at 1947.50 (near the top rail of the trident channel).  Next lower targets are at 1913.75 (current minimal ST pullback target) and then the stops I mentioned previously under 1906.50

…my .02

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ES Update

Tomorrow is June option rollover day, so before I redraw all my charts to the new contract I wanted to post the June contract charts one last time….

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Screen Shot 2014-06-11 at 8.19.47 AM

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Starting with the monthly candlestick bars…

The June bar is exhibiting a higher high and higher low.  So long as price remains > the March close at 1921.50 on any pullback, there is nothing new to see here.  The market has been on a continuing melt-up since the closing breakout of the old VLT trendline resistance back in November of 2012 that signified the technical breakout and initial reversal signal of the old secular bear market.

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Screen Shot 2014-06-11 at 8.27.28 AM

Moving in one order of magnitude to the weekly bars, we again see a higher high and higher low–though price is currently under the last weekly close at 1949.25, which invites some minor counter-trend selling.

The last higher low was built at 1803.25 and the last higher high at 1892.50.  That is the old range that was broken out three weeks ago.  The top of that range at 1892.50 is the initial pullback target if we were to get sustained selling.  The first layer of weekly stops are under 1913.75 (last week’s low).

As I have pointed out several times before, the weekly chart above is the roadmap to the Chicago gang’s maneuvering.  So long as we continue to build higher lows, the paradigm remains unchanged.  If and when one of those lows is broken and we don’t get recovery after a stop sweep–then we would have a horse of a different color.

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Screen Shot 2014-06-11 at 8.44.16 AM

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Moving in to the daily bar range chart…

We now have two consecutive lower highs and lower lows on the daily bars, which guarantees at least a new VST higher low in the making.  VST counter-trend traders often use the last lower high as a trailing stop–so those bear stops are currently sitting at 1951.75.  The next major downside target is the old range top at 1898.50, but skittish bears would likely start to cover partials on a move back above 1943 (yesterday’s low).

To flip the ST trend would require a move under 1859, which is unlikely.  The minimum objective of selling from here if I were pulling the levers would be to sweep four consecutive day’s worth of stops located under 1913.75 to set a minimal higher ST low–but we’ll see how the pros play it.  With a lack of unanimous spotters in place, the higher odds point to a pullback and then off to eventual new highs but let’s see what happens here around 1943, which is a minimal new VST pullback.  That line can serve as an intraday bull/bear line for those so inclined.

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Screen Shot 2014-06-11 at 9.00.06 AM

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The last chart above is the hourly bars…

The chart shows nicely where the S&T counter-trend buy signal occurred at 1823.50 in April and then the last S&T ST buy zone signal at 1859.  Pretty cool, eh?

You may recall me saying a while back that the light green trident channel was working nicely.  That channel is drawn from the last IT high and low and two days ago we got a run-up to near the top rail where the current selling began.  The next VST target lower is at 1924.25, with the 6/3 low of 1913.75 that I mentioned above being just below and where the bottom of four days of bullish trailing stops are located as well as the current ST higher low pullback minimum target.  As I also mentioned above, yesterday’s low at 1943 should provide an intraday bull/bear line for those who are so inclined.

We are approaching the rollover window of a major expiration period–so we could see some volatility ahead as the equity option writers get to work in limiting their payouts and making sure that the maximum number of contracts expire worthless.

…my .02

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