ES Update

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Screen Shot 2014-04-29 at 10.55.27 AM

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Screen Shot 2014-04-29 at 10.56.28 AM

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The setup remains the same as from my last post…

We certainly got the selling from right where and when I posted my last ‘head’s up’.  Now we are seeing the reactionary bounce after the sell-off from that new VST lower high at 1882.50.  The next thing to watch for is whether that VST lower high can eventually morph into a ST lower high–or alternately, if the pros pop ES above it, whether it becomes a potential bearish stop sweep/reversal play from that line.

Either way–1882.50 is the key line in play here for intraday traders.  The trailing stops of professional bears are siting just above, and we all know from experience and conditioning that the current regime has been bent on pushing this market higher on the backs of perpetually covering bears.  Normally, I wouldn’t even waste the time of being bearish in the face of unlimited artificial liquidity and an administration not shy about being extremely aggressive in most every phase of implementing their policy goals.  However, with a confirmed top spotter in place, this remains the best potential setup for bears that we have seen in quite some time, so we watch intently and wait.

ES 1844 was the low of the sell-off from the target on my last post.  That is the tentative downside intraday support number on the other side of 1882.50. VST Bulls riding the countertrend buy signal from 1823.50 would probably start selling under that line, if it gets there–so that is the possible intraday range to look at here in the VST.

…my .02

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Addendum:

Some of you may have had some intermittent inability to connect to Stops and Targets yesterday.  The reason for that is that we just finished a week long major move from our long-time hosting company to a new cloud configuration and it takes time for the domain name servers to propagate the new IP addresses world-wide.  Our move will allow for considerable performance and feature improvements going forward.  At this point everything should be working for all of you–if not, please send our tech guys a service ticket from your Stops and Targets settings window.

At the time that Stops and Targets was established, we developed a business relationship with the very best web host then available and they were great to us for many years.  Recently, however, that company was acquired, and in the new management’s zeal to cut costs ,they moved their high end dedicated server clients, such as us, to an inferior hardware infrastructure in a cheaper datacenter.  That is just the way it goes sometimes and after years of almost uninterrupted downtime on our servers we recently have had two significant outtages that knocked Stops and Targets offline for multiple hours.  That is completely unacceptable, and so we decided to bite the bullet and move everything to the most sophisticated host we could find, with the best customer service reputation–and of course, bleeding edge technology.  With a move of this size and complexity, it is not uncommon to have some glitches.  Though we are hoping for it to be mostly seamless from here on, I just wanted you all to know what is happening behind the scenes and that it was just a temporary glitch as we unplugged the old and fired up the new.  Our tech staff here are all sleep-deprived and bleary-eyed from the events of the past week, but are excited to have new and much cooler geek toys to play with.  🙂  Hope you all like the new changes going forward.

-swinger

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2014-04-24 at 12.06.22 PM

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Today we have had two significant things happen so far…

1) ES has touched the top of the descending ST channel shown on the daily bar chart above.

2) The previous day’s low has been taken out.

If we are going to get a lower high to go with the lower low at 1803.25, this is the most likely area.

We have a confirmed spotter in place and this is the expected rally after the initial downside target was attained.  That spotter increases the odds of a paradigm shift and is why we are watchful here.

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Screen Shot 2014-04-24 at 12.13.42 PM

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The hourly bar shows the double bounce off the top of the old VST range at 1867.50.  If that line is broken to the downside, we should see the first sellers emerge.

I have also drawn in the top of the VST bullish channel in green and that rising trendline resistance is presently near 1885 in case we get another push above the descending ST channel top.  After the rising VST channel, there is no further resistance until the spotter high at 1892.50

So… head’s up, and let’s see what happens right here.

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2014-04-22 at 8.13.14 AM

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The daily bar range chart above shows the big picture well…

We have had five successive up days following the turn at 1803.25 on April 14th.  That is a squeeze pattern in line with what I explained that I would do if I were pulling the levers for the pros.  The only remaining bears not under pressure at this point are the ones who shorted on the actual April 4th turn bar above 1867.50.  So, the pro’s mission (forcing bears to cover) could be close to being accomplished for this leg up…

The descending top rail of the original bearish trident channel that I drew in when the top spotter was confirmed, is just above near 1873.  There is a second possible descending channel top formed by drawing a parallel from the last two short-term lower lows, and it is currently at 1881.  That may be the more powerful of the two channels, but we’ll see how it goes here.

We have a short-term lower low and with a confirmed top spotter the odds are higher that we will see a lower high form–so be sure to keep moving those profitable trailing stops up on the long side.

The number to watch for day traders today is yesterday’s low at 1856.50.  In a consecutive up bar sequence, as we are currently in, the sell programs will fire when a previous day’s low is taken out.

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2014-04-21 at 9.32.10 AM

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Screen Shot 2014-04-21 at 9.49.33 AM

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Screen Shot 2014-04-21 at 9.33.49 AM

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So far, the pros are right on script and doing exactly as I suspected…

They bounced it at 1803.25 and have been running the stops of bears who missed the turn.  Stops and Targets generated a short-term counter-trend buy at 1823.50 and the primary trend reversed at 1834 en-route to running the stops above the descending trendline that I pointed out in my last post at the 1850 area. So, that’s everything accomplished from the last post’s checklist.

We are now sitting in that first stop run zone just above 1850 and waiting to see if they push it higher or if they again yank the plug if/when the buyers evaporate.

The last lower VST high is at 1867.50, and there is a layer of resting bear stops just above that could attract the pros–so that is the next most likely upside target.  If the purple bearish trident channel fails to hold the upside of this bounce, then we could see a run back up to take out 1892.50

The two descending  trendlines on my hourly bar chart above are currently at 1865 and 1875

The counter-trend buy signal from S&T at 1823.50 is looking pretty good here, with a trailing stop now set at 1834 to protect positive profit.

All trends remain up > 1834

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2014-04-14 at 9.02.37 AM

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Screen Shot 2014-04-14 at 8.55.16 AM

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We saw an overshoot of the first (now broken) ST bearish trident channel, down to 1803.25.  I have drawn in a second bearish channel in purple on the charts above in case we get rejection on a bounce at resistance and then another push lower.

There are now two levels of ST confirmed resistance…the first is at 1823.50, and the second (the primary trend line) is at 1834

Professional bears (who are currently in profit under the line) are trailing stops at the descending dashed red resistance line currently at about 1850

If past tendencies hold for the current regime, 1823.50 could serve as a bull/bear line for those looking to reverse in the countertrend anticipating a reassertion of the IT and LT bullish trends.

Strictly speaking–the ST trend is bearish under 1834, but would reverse to bullish on a move back above–so those are the key resistance levels above.

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Screen Shot 2014-04-14 at 9.08.22 AM

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Stops and Targets is showing the ST timeframe being in play here, with price now inside the ideal sell zone (1818.25 to 1823.50), but remember that the IT and LT trends remain up–and so countertrend trades against the ST (bearish)–but with the higher timeframes (bullish) have a higher chance of succeeding than if the higher trends were aligned.

If we see a move above 1823.50, we should see a countertrend buy show up on S&T, with the first target being the primary trend line at 1834.  That’s not much of an incentive, but if the bounce clears both resistance levels we could see a run back up to the descending dashed resistance trendline, with the bear stops above as the targets for the pros.

The first ST target lower is 1802.50, which is aligned with the bottom of the rising IT trend channel (light green trendline).  Next targets lower would then be confirmed support at 1794.25, and then the new descending bearish trident channel bottom rail currently at the 1787 area–but heading for an alignment with rising IT trend support at about 1784.

The trend is your friend until it ain’t.

ST trend is down < 1834
IT trend is up >1747

…my .02

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