ES Update

.

Let’s get reacquainted with the Big Picture by zooming in from the highest timeframes to the shortest…

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-31 at 10.09.48 AM

Higher high and higher low on the monthly bar.  It’s all good > 1839 (monthly open).

.

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-31 at 10.12.00 AM

.

Weekly bar is similarly all good > 1834 (last week’s low)

.

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-31 at 10.13.54 AM

.

The daily bar range chart above does the best job of illustrating the recent sideways action within the 3/7 to 3/17 1823.50 to 1880.50 ST pullback range, which has painted a minimal bearish lower high in the ST timeframe with a potential higher low forming at 1834 (current VST range bottom).  That’s what I was referencing about ‘bear baiting’ in my previous post.

.

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-31 at 10.19.54 AM

.

The last chart above shows hourly bars and illustrates the contracting VST range (1834 to 1868.75) within the ST range (1823.50 to 1876.75)

This morning, the VST descending trendline was broken, triggering intraday stops above 1860.75.  Next targets higher are the VST bear stops above 1868.75 and then the descending ST trendline currently near 1874.50

It would take a move under 1834 to flip the VST trend bearish and a move under 1823.50 to flip the ST trend.

.

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-31 at 10.25.57 AM

.

Stops and Targets agrees that all major trends remain up > 1823.50

The trend is your friend, until it ain’t

…my .02

.

.

ES Update

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-26 at 2.32.10 PM

.

The chart above shows hourly bar closes plotted as a line.

The short-term trading range is between 1880.50 and 1823.50…

(1880.50 + 1823.50) / 2 = 1852

The midway point between the short-term range is at 1852, and I count 22 hourly crosses of that line since 3/12!  Ya’ think maybe somebody out there likes this general area?

The VST range has now contracted to 1841.25 to 1876.75

This sideways malaise is likely consolidation ahead of a potentially powerful ST range breakout. So long as price stays north of the VST range bottom at 1841.25, odds favor a run up to take out the bear stops now arranged in tiers just above 1876.75 and then above 1880.50.  The little dip to touch the stops under 1842, while allowing a lower high to build at 1876.75, smacks of bear baiting to me–but we’ll see.

You’ve heard it from me before–first they bore everyone, and then when least expected…whammo!  So stay sharp and honor those stops.

All trends remain up > 1841.25

…my .02

.

.

ES Update

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-24 at 2.08.32 PM

.

We now have a new ST higher low established at 1823.50.  The daily bar range chart above has been updated to also include the VST range between 1842 and 1880.50.  As I mentioned in prior commentary, this has been a rangebound market and what we have been seeing recently, from a trending perspective, is meandering near the midpoint of the new ST range of 1823.50 to 1880.50

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-24 at 2.08.53 PM

.

In today’s trading we have had a pullback to test VST primary trend support at 1842, which aligns with a poke below newly formed ST trendline support.  If the poke under 1842 holds, that could turn out be just a little stop run under the VST range–similar to what we saw at 1823.50 with a poke under previous support at 1825.25.

If we now get a run higher after from VST support at 1842 the next upside target would be 1880.50.  If the VST pivot at 1842 fails, the next targets lower are 1839.50 and then the bottom of the ST range at 1823.50.

So…intraday bull/bear line is at 1842–price action is bullish above and bearish below.

…my .02

.

.

ES Update

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-18 at 10.12.37 AM

.

Today is the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting, with the announcement coming tomorrow, lots of important reports on Thursday, and Quadruple Witching on Friday.  In other words–plenty of opportunity for silliness this week from the pros…

.

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-18 at 10.10.20 AM

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-18 at 10.09.57 AM

.

We got the ST pullback I was looking for–and it filled the open gap at 1836 and then tagged VST support at 1825.25, with a poke just below 1823.50 to trigger a few stops before reversing.

This morning the futures were rallied to break the descending red trendline that defined trailing stop placement for many professional bears who were short from 1880.50.  That was the first target of the push from the provisional new low at 1823.50.

The next target higher is pretty obvious–the remaining bear stops resting above 1880.50.  If they go there before the FOMC announcement, it is the same tired old script from the pros–but what they lack in creativity is more than made up for in sheer ruthlessness.

I have added a new intraday bull/bear line at 1856.50 for those of you Type A’s out there who like to play in traffic.  🙂

That line at 1856.50 is where the descending red trendline was broken.  If the goal was just to raid the stops above that line but not go for the new high, then price will descend back below at some point–on the other hand, if the ultimate goal is to squeeze the bears to new highs again, there would seem to be no reason to retreat back below that line.

ST range has now widened to 1725 – 1880.50.  ES 1823.50 is the new provisional low candidate and the ST weekly cycle clock has been restarted there.

…my .02

.

.

 

ES Update

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-14 at 9.16.22 AM

.

The gap target at 1836 has now been filled.  Now we watch to see if they stop there, or if the pros push it down under the VST range bottom at 1825.25 to tap into broader selling–where a number of close in sell stops are likely resting.  The early zone of contention today is between 1836 and 1825.25

.

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-14 at 9.17.09 AM

.

The chart above shows the realization of the first daily bar target I pointed out in my March 11 post.  That was the gap fill at 1836 correlating with a retest of the top of the old ST range at 1838.75.  If we are going to get a bounce, this looks like a pretty good spot

.

.

Screen Shot 2014-03-14 at 9.16.44 AM

.

The weekly bar chart above is the one I have been holding out as the grand road map to the Obama administration strategy in cahoots with their benefactors in Chicago.  That tendency chart is what enabled us to anticipate and grab the last stop sweep/reversal at 1747.  It also shows that this current weekly pullback is comparatively insignificant unless it breaks under 1825.25.  The current weekly bar is an ‘inside bar’ showing the range-bound nature of the market at present and the basis of my analysis from yesterday stating that between that last weekly high/low the market is simply consolidating.

Let’s call 1836 the intraday bull/bear line and see if we can’t get the expected bounce from this general area.  The usual MO for the pros is to bait the bears ahead of the FOMC meeting and then squeeze them back to the stops ahead of the announcement.  That script is getting a little tired, one would think, but let’s see if they trot it out yet again.

…my .02

.

.