ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-09-30 at 9.37.39 AM

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In the hourly bar chart above, you can see how the pros continue to toy with that old all-time high line at 1678.50.  They trapped bears with the gap above it going into the FOMC meeting and then they gapped below it on today’s open.  That old March 2000 high was a major profit-taking target for the big boys, and we all are watching and waiting to see how it will be consolidated going forward.

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Screen Shot 2013-09-30 at 9.42.15 AM

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Today’s opening gap touched the Stops and Targets ideal buy zone between 1661 and 1670.  This is the area where the risk/reward reaches 1:3, which is the minimum that pros use for strategic trade entries.  Let’s see if we get a sustained bounce from this area and the eventual building of the higher structural low I have been looking for.  If 1661 area can’t hold and the ST support trendline is broken and held–the next support level lower is at the bottom of the ST/VST range near 1623.

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-09-27 at 9.51.51 AM

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Okay, we’ve got the gap fill at 1682.  Now, let’s see what comes next…

ES 1682 is the intraday bull/bear line–if it holds we could get a bounce near here with all the requisites met for a minimal ST structural low in place.  If not, the next target lower is ST trendline support lining up with the ST primary trend line at 1661 area.

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Screen Shot 2013-09-27 at 9.56.27 AM.

Stops and Targets is looking for a pullback into the ST ideal buy zone between 1661-1670, so we’ll see how it goes here at the bottom of the gap range versus a further pullback to ST support.

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-09-26 at 9.35.38 AM

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The gap range between 1682.75 and 1705 (shown as a shaded blue rectangle in the chart above) that I pointed out in my last post has indeed contained the recent price action.

ES 1726.75 has now been established as a ST high and we got the push under the minimum pullback target of 1687.50 to complete the minimum pullback structure.  The current local low of 1684.50 can now serve as an intraday bull/bear line as we await the formation of a new VST low and the eventual formation of a higher ST structural low.

Breakaway gaps can indicate intention by the pros–and we need to see what happens when one side and/or the other of the current gap range is filled.

All major trends remain up > 1661, but it would take a break under 1618.25 from the current configuration before we saw any major selling kick in–and that is why I think the pros will eventually build a higher structural low, the first candidate being that minor dip under the minimum to 1684.50 with the possibility of perhaps one more push lower to fill the gap at 1682.

The gap range between 1682.75 and 1705 remains in play here in the near term.

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-09-23 at 10.51.11 AM

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There was an IT parallel channel top rail strike on 9/19 near 1725.  That channel is drawn by constructing a parallel line from the IT trendline support (shown on the chart above).  First support is the top of the IT range at 1698.50, with the next downside target being the open gap at 1682

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Screen Shot 2013-09-20 at 2.55.46 PM

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We also got a number of top spotter signals at the close on Thursday and Friday.  At the close on Friday there were 878 confirmed spotter signals across the Russell 3000.  So, we could be seeing the start of a reversal move–but only if ST support is eventually broken, and they may need to build a new higher ST structural low first.

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Screen Shot 2013-09-23 at 10.55.04 AM

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Moving in to the hourly bar chart, we can see the selling following the FOMC touch of the IT parallel channel top.  The minimum pullback to establish a new ST structural low would be 1687.50, with the open hourly gap at 1682.75 just below.

There is a second minor breakaway gap at 1705 and that could define the minor trading range here between those two numbers: 1682.75 (1682 from daily chart) to 1705.  If we get a sustained move outside of that minor gap range, then something bigger could be afoot.

…my .02

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ES Update

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The FOMC announced that they will continue doing what they have been doing since early 2009…

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Screen Shot 2013-09-19 at 9.35.28 AM

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…that, of course, lit off the buy programs–and from the chart above, which illustrates the ‘Obama Channel’, one can see why.

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Screen Shot 2013-09-19 at 9.39.57 AM

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The top rail of that channel is currently near 1732

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Screen Shot 2013-09-19 at 9.42.52 AM

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The next higher target is the top of the VLT trident channel, currently near 1757

We have had a +100 point run since the last low I pointed out at 1618.25 –and this leg might be getting a little frothy now…

I’ll be watching closely to see how this goes now that we are nearing my long-time channel targets.  In a perfect trading scenario, we would see unanimous top spotters with wide confirmation from the Russell 3000 in Stops and Targets–when the momentum finally stalls.

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Screen Shot 2013-09-19 at 9.47.02 AM

Until then, all trends are up > 1661

…my .02

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How much has the Fed’s futures-led rally from 2009 cost?

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Screen Shot 2013-09-19 at 9.55.11 AM

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…one measure is the US Dollar Index.

Put in a fashion that the average person on the street can comprehend–what used to cost $80.30 in 2009 now costs $95.91 at this moment in time.

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