ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-01-31 at 8.56.31 AM

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At the close yesterday, we got a Stops and Targets top spotter alert on two futures symbols (ES and YM) and two cash indexes (SPX and NASDAQ Composite)

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Screen Shot 2013-01-31 at 8.54.47 AM

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There were also a moderate number of individual issues that signaled new spotters (339) and 151 others that were confirmed.  That is the first glimmer of hope for counter-trend bears…but as always, spotters must be confirmed before we start thinking about a paradigm change.

A couple of points of concern here for bears, however…it was not a unanimous futures/index sweep that I like to see at a top, and that major target of ES 1519.50 still looms just above.  The spotter did come where we would expect it, though–in the resistance void (> 1491.50) and on an FOMC announcement day.

To confirm the ES spotter signal, we would need to see a daily bar close under 1493.50.  A move above 1506 would negate the setup and invalidate the signal.

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Screen Shot 2013-01-31 at 9.20.10 AM

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The VST support that I pointed out at 1491.50 remains the intraday bull/bear line.  Just under that line at 1491 is the minimum target for a pullback to reset the VST range.  Today’s low so far is 1491.25–so that is the first place where we could see sellers begin to appear.  The pros have defended that line four times in the past four trading days–so it remains key.

If that line were to be crossed and held, the next minimum pullback target, for ST, is at 1482.75.  We haven’t had a new ST structural low since 1382.25 on 12/28/2012, so at some point we are going to get at least a minimal pullback to reset the ST range after the breakout at 1446.

Other key features on the hourly bar chart above are the bullish trident channel in light green, whose center line was touched at the morning low–and the VST trendline support that currently lines up with the ST minimum target at 1482.75

So, first things first–and that is the VST support at 1491.50 where a break below would set up the first VST counter-trend sell in a while.  The other two numbers to watch today are the spotter bar extremes at 1506 and 1493.50

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-01-29 at 9.01.43 AM

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Today is the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting with the announcement coming tomorrow at 2:15 pm (New York)

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Screen Shot 2013-01-29 at 9.06.47 AM

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The big prize going into the FOMC announcement remains ES 1519.50.  If the pros decide to goose the market, we are not too far away now–just about 25 ES points from current levels.

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Screen Shot 2013-01-29 at 9.09.55 AM

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We are in the resistance void are above 1491.50, however, and that is the zone where potential exhaustion in the current push could occur.

As I pointed out in my last post, ES 1491.50 remains the VST bull/bear line.  The pros have recently defended that level as intraday traders continue to focus on it as a setup for VST trades (bullish above/bearish below).

The new year gap and squeeze has been relentless thus far with no escape for trapped bears.  We have not had a ST structural pivot low formed since 1382.25 and from here we would need a pullback under 1475 to meet the bare minimum.  Next support below is at 1471.50 at the top of the VST range breakout.

We could see a shallow VST range form ahead of the announcement between 1500 and the area around 1491.50 (from here it would take a minimum pullback to 1490.50 to reset the VST range).  A move above 1500 would negate that scenario, however, and extend the squeeze closer to the key 1519.50 upside target in all time frames.

So, 1491.50 remains the VST bull/bear line ahead of the FOMC–above there and the squeeze continues and below we would start watching for minimum structural targets as stops are run under previous day lows.

Trends in all time frames are up > 1471.50

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-01-25 at 9.25.33 AM

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Intraday VST bull/bear line remains at 1491.50…

That line is the bottom of the void between 1491.50 and 1519.50.  Bears have been squeezed to death here since the start of the 12/31/2012 gap and run.  The initial target of that squeeze was the bear stops that were located above the 9/14/2012 structural high at 1461.75.  Those were taken on 1/10/2013.  The current push started at the ideal entry zone on 1/16/2013 and has obtained the last VST resistance target at 1491.50.  Now we are into the void area above, where there are no close-in resistance targets until 1519.50–and so we start watching here for potential exhaustion.

The most aggressive intraday traders will be using 1491.50 to set up trades; bullish above/bearish below.  The first VST technical break would not come until/unless 1456.50 is taken out on the downside.

The big target above is at 1519.50.  It remains to be seen if there is enough juice to go straight for it on the current push–or if we will start to see profit-taking if 1491.50 is taken out.

…my .02

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ES Update

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Screen Shot 2013-01-24 at 8.34.32 AM

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For the proper Big Picture perspective, let’s start by examining the monthly bars and then work our way back in through the shorter time frames…

The VLT range here is 1036.75 to 1519.50.  As I have mentioned before–the official end of the secular bear market is achieved technically with a poke over 1519.50.  That’s what the pros want, and their intentions are unmistakable on the chart above.

To flip the monthly bars bearish from here would require a move below 1382.25

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Screen Shot 2013-01-24 at 8.44.35 AM

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To flip the weekly bars bearish would require a move under 1456.50

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Screen Shot 2013-01-24 at 8.48.15 AM

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On the range chart above–ES is trending bullish in all time frames > 1471.50

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Screen Shot 2013-01-24 at 8.53.00 AM

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On the hourly bars, we can see how the levels I pointed out in my last post have worked out…

We got the touch of resistance at 1479.25 followed by a pullback to 1471.50 and then 1483.75 was converted from resistance to support on a breakout–followed by a touch of resistance precisely at 1491.50.  Not too shabby.

So, now we are at the edge of a void between 1491.50 and the key resistance level of 1519.50.  That void resistance at 1491.50 and VST support at 1483.75 is what is in play this morning.

As you long-time readers know, I like to look for support/resistance voids in the charts to indicate potential exhaustion areas before a pullback.  We’ll see how this goes here from the exact touch of 1491.50 on 1/22. 

That line at 1491.50 is the intraday bull/bear line.  Significant sellers likely won’t begin to appear until/unless ES drops under 1456.50–in which case, the open gap at 1420 area where the squeeze started could become the downside target.  If we get a move above 1491.50, there is no resistance until 1519.50.

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Screen Shot 2013-01-24 at 9.03.23 AM

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Stops and Targets is showing the next target higher at 1519.50 and the ideal entry zone at 1461.75 to 1476.19

ES is now up the following since last signals…

ST = +101.75 (+7.34 %)
IT = +265.50 (+21.71 %)
LT = +333.25 (+28.85 %)

😉

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Screen Shot 2013-01-24 at 9.22.32 AM

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Screen Shot 2013-01-24 at 9.25.44 AM

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Last night’s earnings announcement from Apple caused some excitement in the NASDAQ futures.  If we don’t see a recovery from the >40 point futures takedown to S&T short-term trend support at 2713.75–the downside target there is the open gap at 2365.25, which also lines up with ST trendline support.

Could be a fun day in the markets today…bears have a shot here (below 1491.50), but there sure do seem to be a lot of the usual message board suspects on board short (and underwater) at this point–and we know from experience that those guys usually don’t catch tops.

…my .02

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ES Update

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ES has now achieved the VST confirmed resistance target at 1479.25

Nearest support is at 1471.50 and a break below would bring in the first counter-trend sellers (day traders).  The bottom of the VST range is at 1456.50 and a break below that line would bring in the next level of sellers targeting the open gap at 1423.75

If 1479.25 is broken to the upside, next VST targets are at 1483.75, 1491.50, and then the big one at 1519.50

First order of business this morning is to see what happens here at the first retest of 1479.25

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So long as ES trades above all ranges and trendline resistance (currently trending in all time frames > 1471.50)–it just doesn’t get any more bullish than that!  That is precisely the sort of setup that spells ‘checkmate’ for the bears–where all hope is finally lost.  That is also exactly what the pros want to see to force covering and to assure capitulation.

The pros bought in at 1334 (bottom spotter) and at 1382.25 and they are quite happy to sell those investments > 1461.75, which was the old structural high at the time of their purchases and the target for the squeeze move.  See how that works?

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Today is January options expiration and we have a market holiday on Monday.

…my .02

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