ES

.


.

.


It is pretty obvious what the pros are shooting for here after the Obamacare news…

First level of bear stops comes just above ST trendline resistance (about 1346.25 as I type) and the mother lode is resting just above 1357.  Lately, pros have been breaking trendline resistance (to run stops) and retreating–but a sustained move past trendline resistance and above 1357 would establish a new structural high.  Should that happen, that breakout to a new high coupled with a new higher low (at 1302.50) would trigger buying from both bears covering –and momentum buyers at the paradigm reversal and establishment of a higher low/higher high pattern.

ES remains in a VST range between 1302.50 and 1357…but all eyes will be on 1357 if trendline resistance is not sold after those stops are run.

…my .02

.

.

ES Update

.

.

The VST analysis remains the same as my last post except the lower range boundary has now moved up to 1302.50

.

.

.

The trading range chart above is updated to show the formation of a ST triangle within the present ST trading range of 1255.50 to 1357.  As I mentioned before, the game here could be to hold price above 1255.50 long enough for IT support to form.  It will take several more days for that to happen.  The VST range (1302.50 to 1357) is presently defining the (lack of) action.  Sellers would start to appear under 1302.50, and buyers above 1357.

…my .02

.

.

ES Update

.

.

Not a whole lot going on here (yet).  This pullback from the 1347.50 area I mentioned in previous posts was expected–but we’ll probably need to get a move under 1297 to scare up buyers in the VST, and then < 1255.50 to flip the range in the ST

The VST range is 1297 to 1357.50, and that is what is constraining the current sideways price action…

.

.

..

Zooming out to the bigger picture… ES 1413.25 (the last top spotter signal) is now a confirmed long-term top as we wait to see if 1255.50 can eventually morph into IT support–or if they will go for the New Year gap at 1240.25.  The shaded yellow rectangles represent trading ranges in four timeframes.  We would need about another week above 1255.50 to redraw the IT range, so that is the line that LT and IT bulls want to see defended.

.

.

.

Moving out two more orders of magnitude to the monthly bars, the VLT macro trend setup gets clearer with an impulsive move that is close to the very long-term bearish trend line resistance.  That VLT trend line has been on my radar for quite some time, but we didn’t quite get there on the last push.  That line is presently about 1422 and the bottom of the light green bullish trident channel is at about 1240 and lines up presently with the New Year gap.  One of those two major targets could ultimately come into play.  The move up from 596.50 was great, but we’ll see which side of the VST range is taken first to know if the party is truly over–or if there might be another push left to eventually tag that VLT line.

…my .02

.

.

FOMC Day

.

.

Today at 12:30 pm (New York) we get the FOMC announcement and quarterly forecasts released at about 2 pm.

ES has moved to just below my last VST resistance target at 1357.25 and the next target above is the initial May 4th IT trend line break at 1365.50.  Above that line is a resistance void up to 1405.  As I was saying in a recent post, if the bears are going to reassert, it will likely come in this area after an exhaustion of resistance targets from a retest of the original breakdown–so watch out here.

The old resistance line at 1347.50 I mentioned yesterday can serve as an intraday bull/bear line around the FOMC announcement.  If the idea here is to squeeze the last of the bears out before the FOMC, that line would serve as a stop sweep/reversal setup.  If we don’t get a pullback here, however, there is not much stopping a fast rise once it became clear that the bearish countertrend setup has failed.

All trends are up > 1331.50

…my .02

.

.

ES Update

.

.

ES has broken out of the old bearish downtrend channel from the intermediate top, but is close here to the top of the ST bullish channel…

.

.

.

The top of that ST bullish channel lines up with heavy ST resistance at 1347.50, which has already been tested once (to the penny) on 6/17.

.

.

.

Zooming in for a closer look… the early line in play is that resistance at 1347.50.  That is a critical line for countertrend bears.  If it holds, it could be an excellent place to retry a short entry (targeting a lower low (<1255.50)–but a breakout above could potentially lead to a fast move higher, as more bears would be forced to cover in the face of a fully-trending market.

…it’s all about 1347.50 right here

…my .02

.

.