ES Update

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The range chart above lays out the big picture well…

Intermediate pullback to the bottom rail of the top spotter trident channel.  Bottom spotter at that bottom rail touch and then a short-term rally to set a new structural low (if we get a close today > 1287.25).

I have drawn in a light green dashed support channel that could build on the intermediate timeframe, and that is what I will watch on a pullback.

The key level to watch is the bottom spotter at 1287.25

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The intraday chart above lays out the VST picture…

So far, we se a higher low (1294) and a higher high (1329.75), which is a VST bullish trending structure from the spotter low at 1287.25.  ES 1316 is the spotter confirmation line, and that presently lines up with the bottom rail of the gray VST trident built off that higher low/higher high sequence.

The light gray shaded rectangle illustrates the weekly bar shadow between 1289.75 and 1351 (also long-term primary trend support and intermediate resistance).  So far, it looks like ES is going to build a bearish weekly bar (lower high/lower low), but what probably really matters for the pros is to stabilize the market here above 1287.25  and to protect that new structural low.

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Ya’ gotta love those spotter signals…

The first screenshot is from Monday’s close, and the second one (confirmations highlighted) was from yesterday’s close.  It still remains to be seen whether the spotter low will stick, but it sure was handy to know when to take profits on short positions and it coincided perfectly with the VST downside target at 1295.75 and the touch of the S&T long-term primary trend line.

Now we watch to see if the character of the market changes after that long-term support bounce–and if the pressure switches from the sell side to the buy side.

…my .02

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