ES Update

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As expected, profit-taking came in at the shaded resistance zone I pointed out yesterday.  I have drawn in a tentative dotted red resistance trend line that could be used as a stop guide for short-term sellers from that resistance.

The dynamic here is an intermediate short bias versus long-term and short-term long bias from the structural pivot at 1287.25, but the short-term forces are now split from the resistance touch.  Bulls will need to eventually overpower the intermediate bearish resistance between 1332-1339 to make a run toward the top of the descending trident channel.  A breakout through the top of the trailing stop trend line would be the first step to draw in momentum buyers–otherwise, the next downside target is a fill of the open gap at 1314.75

…my .02

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ES Update

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First target for a confirmed spotter is always the nearest primary trend line.  In this case that is ST, which is presently at 1337.75.  I have drawn in a VST resistance zone target area between 1332.75 and 1336.25 that lines up well with the S&T target.  We’ll see what happens if/when that area is hit.

…my .02

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ES Update

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The range chart above lays out the big picture well…

Intermediate pullback to the bottom rail of the top spotter trident channel.  Bottom spotter at that bottom rail touch and then a short-term rally to set a new structural low (if we get a close today > 1287.25).

I have drawn in a light green dashed support channel that could build on the intermediate timeframe, and that is what I will watch on a pullback.

The key level to watch is the bottom spotter at 1287.25

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The intraday chart above lays out the VST picture…

So far, we se a higher low (1294) and a higher high (1329.75), which is a VST bullish trending structure from the spotter low at 1287.25.  ES 1316 is the spotter confirmation line, and that presently lines up with the bottom rail of the gray VST trident built off that higher low/higher high sequence.

The light gray shaded rectangle illustrates the weekly bar shadow between 1289.75 and 1351 (also long-term primary trend support and intermediate resistance).  So far, it looks like ES is going to build a bearish weekly bar (lower high/lower low), but what probably really matters for the pros is to stabilize the market here above 1287.25  and to protect that new structural low.

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Ya’ gotta love those spotter signals…

The first screenshot is from Monday’s close, and the second one (confirmations highlighted) was from yesterday’s close.  It still remains to be seen whether the spotter low will stick, but it sure was handy to know when to take profits on short positions and it coincided perfectly with the VST downside target at 1295.75 and the touch of the S&T long-term primary trend line.

Now we watch to see if the character of the market changes after that long-term support bounce–and if the pressure switches from the sell side to the buy side.

…my .02

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ES Update

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We got the expected bounce yesterday at Stops & Targets’ long-term primary trend support line (1289) and a bottom spotter signal was triggered at the close.

The next targets up are VST resistance at 1339.25,  ST primary trend resistance, currently near 1347–and then intermediate primary trend resistance, currently near 1354

The S&T algorithm had the downmove from the top at 1419.75 pegged as an intermediate term bearish pullback to long-term primary trend support.  That could be it for the intermediate downtrend if the long-term bull market remains in effect–but we’ll have to see how the next pullback from this bounce goes, and ultimately, whether 1287.25 can hold as the structural low.

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The bottom spotter yesterday triggered at the long-term primary trend line.

…my .02

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ES Update

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From the spotter high at 1419.75, ES has pulled all the way back to the long-term primary trend line at 1288.75.  An intermediate-term pullback within the context of a long-term bull market typically finds support at/near this area, but if it doesn’t –the next support targets lower are in a band between 1274 and the New Year breakaway gap at 1246.75

I have updated the VST chart above to show the touch of that primary trend support at 1288.75 along with a slightly altered bearish trident channel.

As I explained in my previous post, many day traders will key on the previous closing price as a fulcrum near a suspected turn, and we would need to see a high > than the previous day’s high to set up the structure that allows trend line resistance to eventually build.  I have drawn in a shaded blue zone that shows the previous close at 1290.75 and the previous closing bar high at 1310.50.  An intraday bounce will need to exceed that previous high, at a minimum, to eventually build a new local pivot.  ES has been trending bearish since the last break of 1354/1352.50 on 5/11 and so far, none of the support targets have provided a foothold stop to the grind lower–likely, because as I pointed out in earlier posts, many of the liquidity-providing bears had given up shorting right near the ST and IT trend line support breakdown (at 1372) on a gap opening on 5/6, which is where the trap door was opened.

The macro trend remains down, but we’ll have to watch and see what happens here near S&T long-term support (and my VST support target at 1295.75).  Counter-trend bulls want to see a bounce and breakout > 1310.50 to start the bottoming process, whereas trend following bears would like to see another failure below to extend the push down from the 1419.75 intermediate top to target that next 1274-1246 band.

…my .02

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