ES Update

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ES has now achieved the IT trend line target at the top of the triangle range I have been pointing out…

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Now that IT trend line resistance has been touched (at 1268) we could get a consolidation range between that number and 1242 (the 12/02 low).  A break and hold through either side of that consolidation range could generate acceleration for the move.  Above 1268 and the next level of bear stops will be triggered along with a new round of momentum buyers.  A move above 1275.25 would negate the lower high/lower low sequence from 1289.25, and of course, a move above 1289.25 would force the last remaining bears to cover.

The original LT trend line break was at 1271 on 8/2/11 and the last three rally attempts have stalled at or just above that line.  For trend line theory purists, that line represents LT trend resistance and it lines up closely with the Stops and Targets range top at 1273.25.  ES is near the range top here as bears again find themselves with their backs against the wall near technical limits–and that means opportunity for one side or the other.  Of all the numbers mentioned above 1275.25 is the most important from a structural standpoint as it represents the last lower high in the sequence.  Bearish hopes remain intact so long as that number is not exceeded.

Options rollover day is tomorrow, so today is the last day for the December contracts before volume switches to March.

…my .02

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By request, daily multitrend charts to scale…

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