ES Update

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ES 1313.25 worked perfectly as a stop sweep/reversal line…

In the premarket, ES is testing resistance at 1343 – 1345.50. Next resistance above is at 1352.50, then the gap at 1354.75. Those two lines surround the Stops and Targets’ trading range top at 1353.75.

Underneath, key VST support is at 1331.75

The IT bull/bear line remains at 1313.25 and lines up presently with the bottom of the light green trident channel I drew in last week from the low at 1302.75

It is still a rangebound market (shown by shaded red and green ares on daily bar charts) and 1331.75 is the center of that range, but bulls have the momentum here approaching the resistance targets–and if those can be overcome, may be working back towards the top of the red downtrend channel from the spotter high.

…my .02

Important Line…

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I have decided to modify my bull/bear line placement slightly from 1316 to 1313.25 and to change the emphasis of that line from VST/ST to IT…

The key event of the recent push down was the break of IT trendline support at 1313.25. That was the target for a stop/sweep reversal setup, if one is to develop. Yesterday, we got the sweep and then the reversal above the gray trendline–now we watch to see if buyers come in here.

ES 1313.25 now becomes the intermediate-term dividing line–and will determine whether we get a confirmed trend change with a cross and hold under that line…or if the recent IT pullback will set an eventual pivot low in this area and then resume the macro uptrend.

This may well be the epicenter from where the next IT trending move will develop. The simple way to look at this is ‘intermediate-term bullish above 1313.25 …and intermediate-term bearish below’.

The short-term trend is down under 1335 and the IT trend is up > 1313.25.

…my .02

ES Update



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ES has broken IT trendline support and has retested that break level at 1313.25 in the premarket, which should be the early line in play.

I still like 1316 for the intraday bull/bear line here–and that lines up favorably with Stops and Targets’ IT primary trend line at 1317.75

I have drawn in a light gray resistance trendline showing where the most aggressive bears will likely be trailing stops from the IT trendline break. I have also drawn in another light green trendline underneath that can act as preliminary ‘knife catch’ support, in case we get a stop sweep/ reverse rally.

Next target higher is the daily stop above 1322.50.   Next target lower is the open gap at 1294.50.

…my .02

ES Update

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Picking up from yesterday’s post…

ES tagged IT trendline support and has run the stops under 1316. That number now becomes the new stop sweep/reversal line. The idea here is to watch what ES does after the pressure objective (the stop run) has been met.

I have drawn in a light green tentative trident channel from yesterday’s low at 1310.75. That line should serve as a trailing stop guide for those who are buying from the IT trendline support touch (and at Stops and Targets’ IT primary trend line).

The VST trendline break at 1320.75 is first resistance above, then the open gap at 1328.50.

If the light green trendline fails to hold…the closest stops will be under 1310.75 at yesterday’s low. The next target lower is the range bottom at 1290.

This is ST bears versus IT bulls within the range…

The daily bar chart does a great job of illustrating the bigger picture of ‘trend versus range’. Clearly, the ST trend has been down since the spotter signal on May 2–but the initial IT support objectives have now been met, causing the ST pros to cover partials to lock in profit and potentially enticing IT bulls to ‘buy the dip’. That sets up a volatility zone around the IT primary trend support/ IT trendline support/ stop-reversal line in the 1316-1318 area.

If this area fails to produce a bounce and a resumption of the IT uptrend, the next target lower is the bottom of the large range (shown as shaded red and green on the daily bar chart) at 1290.25. Under there is where sellers will be found. Conversely, if we get a rally after the volatility from this area unwinds–the upside target would be the descending ST trendline resistance that defines the ST downtrend.

…For now, ES 1310.75 is the first ‘potential pivot’ and trading strategies that work in shorter timeframes will be using that number as a hard stop. The pros know that–and that is what the light green tentative channel line and bull/bear line at 1316 is for.  Bias is bullish above/bearish below that line.

…my .02

ES Update

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The 5/2 top spotter at 1373.50 that was confirmed at 1354.75 is looking pretty good here, with a 4% drop since the original signal.

The red trendline resistance has worked for ST bears trailing stops just above. Overnight, the next downside objective was hit by running stops under 1316 and tagging IT trendline support at 1312.25.

As I was saying recently, this is a battle between ST and IT and range versus trend–and as I type, the ST bears have pushed all the way to the next trend support structure (the IT trendline). Now we watch to see if the IT trend breaks or holds…

The top of the recent bounce from 1316 to trendline resistance at 1345.50 corresponded roughly with the original ST trendline support break level near 1341.75. That was a good trade, but the failure to break out on the second touch of trendline resistance–followed by a failure to hold the range centerlines at 1337 and then 1331.75 is what triggered the sell programs.

We have the potential for another stop sweep/reversal under 1316, and so that line becomes the intraday bull/bear line as we await resolution from the overnight push down to IT trendline support.

Spotters are a valuable weapon, when properly used.

…my .02