(click image to enlarge chart)
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ES has touched the original ST trendline extension that was broken on 3/10 (shown as dashed green line in the chart above). That is a perfect back-kiss and we’ll see how this goes here–but pros sometimes use those old trend lines as a squeeze target.
I have drawn in tentative channel top as a dotted red line to show what the most aggressive counter-trend bears might be using as a trailing stop line for an entry made right at the back-kiss. As I mentioned before, if a VST sell setup is valid—that trendline should not be broken to the upside.
If selling comes in here from the ST partials target for Stops and Targets (1324.75 from 1294) and a touch of the VST resistance band I have been showing at 1327-1331.50, the next lower target would be VST trendline support at about 1312 and then the bull stops under 1300.
If that dotted red CT line is taken out to the upside, the next target higher is IT trendline resistance at 1335 and then the top of the range/gap fill at 1338.
As I mentioned yesterday, there is quite a bit of resistance in this general area. If it can be taken out to the upside, the last of the bears would be forced to cover above 1338 and the next VST resistance is way up at around 1372 area (resistance void). If that happens, then I would start looking for spotter signals to form…but first things first.
VST bull/bear line on the day is at 1324.75…price action is bearish below/bullish above.
…my .02