In a post made last Friday, I mentioned the potential building of a key structural pivot high that would ultimately redefine the next point used to measure the trend in simplest terms. (A bearish downtrend is defined as a series of lower highs/lower lows and a bullish uptrend is defined as a series of higher lows/higher highs). That structural high has now been built at 1103.50 (1107.75 June contract pricing).
That 1103.50 number now becomes very important, since it will ultimately define either the latest lower high in the downtrend progression from the 1212.50 swing high set on 4/26 –or it could define the first higher high if the bulls were able to reverse the trend from this consolidation zone and eventually take out that line to the upside.
I have reset my trendlines to use that new structural pivot as a fulcrum and it should be plain to see that the bulls have come right to the edge of a momentum breakout here early in the session, only to be turned back at a touch of the trendline drawn from that structural pivot.
I have set 1083 as the new intraday bull/bear line (price action is bearish below/bullish above). Bears have the ball here after yesterday’s shakeout rally back up to the trendline and all the S&T trends are now down again below 1078. The usual first target for a spotter signal at the start of a macro trend is the closest primary trend line, and that was achieved yesterday with a small poke above. That spotter signal now has now done it’s job and takes a back seat to the trendlines and the structural pivot explained above.
If this poke lower is reversed, then (in my opinion) bears should bail out of any intraday short trades above 1083—and definitely cover all remaining short positions if there is an eventual move back up and through that important 1103.50 structural pivot.
For now…the bearish lower high/lower low pattern remains intact and so the bears continue to be in the driver’s seat under 1103.50.
S&T primary trend lines…
IT down < 1119
ST down < 1089
LT down < 1078