Market Update – Options Rollover Day

Today is ‘Options Rollover Day’ and Futures Options have now rolled over from the September 2020 to December 2020 contract with a difference of -10.25 points from ESU20 (September) to ESZ20 (December).

All previous chart numbers have been adjusted to reflect the new continuous contract pricing—so, for example, the Long Term stop/reverse line from the expiring September contract at 3,254.75 now becomes 3,244.50, and so forth.



click image above to enlarge


The screen capture above shows weekly bars for the S&P 500 Futures.

On my last post I pointed out the trend channel shown above as the most bullish option at that time.  Note that price precisely touched that top channel and then retreated.  We have a lower high and lower low on the weekly bar currently–so the market is vulnerable to intermediate-term downside weakness going forward from this configuration until/unless we see a new weekly higher high.




The screen capture above shows daily bars with range envelopes and stop/reverse lines for three timeframes.  The daily bars will show the way for the next move–so keep an eye on the short-term timeframe.  A move back above the short-term stop/reverse line signals a pause/end to the channel top pullback shown in the weekly bar chart at the top–whereas a move below the short-term range envelope bottom would resume the descent from the channel top.  There is a large gap in support under the long-term stop/reverse line at 3244.50 (next target lower would be 2973.25) so keep that in mind should that support level be breached.

The good news for bulls is that the recent pullback satisfied the minimum pullback to create a higher 4-bar pivot low in the ongoing Weekly Bar Paradigm that I have been pointing out here since 2009–so if the recent low holds and we get a continuation higher then all is well–but as I said above–the key is to watch where the short-term is leading and to be cognizant of the potential for weakness underneath should this current bounce stall and start to head south again.

…my .02

Market Update

Today the market is reaching a key inflection point so I’ll post a very brief update here as a ‘head’s up’…


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The chart above shows daily bars for the S&P 500 Futures with the three trading ranges from Stops and Targets shown as shaded rectangles.

In my last post some of you may have noticed two trend channels that I had drawn in… one had dashed green lines and the other had dashed red lines.

Those two channels represented my best guess at the time for the containment of future price action under two competing scenarios… the descending red channel was the bearish scenario–and the ascending green one bullish.

Today, price has finally advanced to touch the descending top rail of that red/bearish channel.  It has also filled the very important breakaway gap that was created back on 2/21/20 at 3317.50 when all hell broke loose to the downside after the Chinese intentionally released a weaponized worldwide virus in conjunction with an all-out propaganda campaign using every compromised asset they currently control.


We are seeing all-out warfare of a new kind playing out before our eyes.  This is likely an extinction-level event for the loser of this battle–so we are seeing everything they have got being deployed.  The Chinese are playing for keeps here (or at least trying to).  President Trump isn’t the kind of guy who telegraphs what he is doing tactically–but clearly, they absolutely hate the guy, and so I surmise that he must be doing something right to engender this type of desperate all-out attack. 

In my opinion, the Chinese weren’t quite ready to make this current bold play for world supremacy, as their military capabilities are not yet anywhere near the level needed to counteract America’s.  Their hand is being forced early by Trump’s economic policies and the recent reinvigoration of our military was something that China definitely did not want to see.  The contrived current antics by the leftists is being fueled by big money injections–but so far, is failing pathetically to create to the groundswell of ‘popular support’ the left had hoped for.  It is all backfiring miserably for the global socialists–and so all that remains is for the Trump administration to secure the sanctity of the vote counting process and if that can be done then these evil folks sowing death and misery are done.

It all probably looks pretty bleak on TV to those still watching, I am sure, but the shiny objects that many people are currently focused upon aren’t the really important things.  This is an all-out economic war… America versus China.  Freedom versus communism.  The effeminate, limp-wristed panty-fa dorks who are busy throwing temper tantrums and burning down their own neighborhoods are doing nothing but hastening their own imminent demise.  Those soy boy wimps and motley collection of societal misfits can and will be cleaned up in very short order once they have served their current purpose of driving maximum numbers of middle 20-percent voters away from their demonic lunacy. 

China is in real trouble here… as are the globalists once the masses find out what they have done and are still trying to do to us all.  America will ultimately be fine, but things may get more ugly before it finally gets better–but once it does get better, we are probably going to see the sort of transformative renaissance that comes after the wildfire passes through a forest and burns out the tangled underbrush and creates fertile soil for the sprouting of new life.  We are in the midst of the fire–but I am very much looking forward to seeing the amazing growth and rebirth that comes once China and the old world globalists who pull her strings have been dealt with.  What is happening must happen to effect the change that is necessary.


So, back to those trend channels… the downside breakaway gap from 2/21/20 at 3317.50 has now been filled and we are at the top of the red channel as I type–so head’s up here for a potential pullback.

First thing to watch for when a top comes is a combination of Top-Spotters and Range Top Pullback Alerts.  Those will be the early warning indicators.  IF we see the start of a reversal then the next sequence of events will be a cascading series of downside breakouts below the ST, then IT, and finally LT Stop/Reverse lines.  It will be unmistakable at Stops and Targets if/when it all begins.

On the other hand, if we get a sustained upside breakout through this descending bearish trend channel–then the bearish scenario will weaken dramatically and the next major target higher would become new all-time highs for the market and then the top rail of the ascending bullish channel much higher…

I suggest keeping a close eye on Stops and Targets new end-of-day reports for Range Envelope Crossovers at:

…and also on Stops and Targets Spotter Signals at:

You will definitely know if/when a major top begins to form.


Also, I recommend carefully watching the Trend Leaders in all three timeframes for new clues:





Key inflection points are coming here, so ‘head’s up’.

…my .02




Market Update – Options Rollover Day

Today is ‘Options Rollover Day’ and Futures Options have now rolled over from the June 2020 to September 2020 contract with a difference of -10.50 points from ESM20 (June) to ESU20 (September).

All previous chart numbers have been adjusted to reflect the new continuous contract pricing—so, for example, the Long Term stop/reverse line from the expiring June contract at 2,965 now becomes 2,954.50, and so forth.


click on image to enlarge

My daily bar/range chart above shows how the Stops and Targets signals correlate…

The three shaded areas represent trading ranges (lighter to brighter –> LT to ST ).

I’ll keep it short and quick today as I emerge from my burrow just to post this and then back into a deep work state I go…

Here’s a cool Stops and Targets shortcut trick that many of you already know, but others might not…


At the top of every analysis page is a ‘range envelopes’ section.  That little window says a whole lot if you know how to read it.  So, here’s how I do it…

Start by finding the newest date.  That would be ‘TODAY‘ on the example above.  Let you eyes slide over to the left and then take note of the timeframe and which side of the range envelope is colored.  The red range BOTTOM number at  3,169.25 with a red arrow next to it tells me that we have a short-term downside range breakout.  That means either sell or sell-short depending on how you roll.

After I have that top priority signal in mind I look for the next newest signal, which in the example above happened on 09-Jun-20 where we have a red color on the TOP of the intermediate range and a green arrow to the left.  That tells me that we had an intermediate-term counter-trend pullback alert signal generated at 3,200 on 09-Jun-20 –>and that green arrow tells me the intermediate is trending bullish above 2,997.50.

Finally I do the same thing on the oldest signal and can tell that we had a long-term range TOP breakout and bullish trend change at 3,055.00 back on 02-Jun-20.  I know it is was a major trend change because of the green curved up arrow.


So, let’s put that all together while looking at my chart above and here is my analysis…

Today we got a short-term sell signal at 3169.25 that was hinted at previously by a range top pullback alert at 3,200.  The next targets lower will be 3,055.00 (to test the LT range breakout and trend change) and then 2,997.50 (intermediate trend support) and finally 2,749.75 (long-term range envelope bottom).  See how that all works together?  Pretty cool, right?

That same quick scan technique works for any other tracked symbol at S&T and it works equally well for a very fast assessment of big picture analysis in any kind of market.


Quick political rant…


Several years ago I befriended a fascinating and brilliant historian during a visit to Colonial Williamsburg.  He said to me, circumspectly, ‘people never really change’.  The clothes and toys do, of course–but people generally are the same over time.  Back during the American Revolution, for example, he said that the political divide was approximately 40% on one side 40% on the other–and then 20% in the middle (I may not recollect those percentages with absolute precision–but it’s close enough to make the point).  So, in essence, the American Revolution was won by a minority of the population struggling against equally-determined opposition on the other side–but the key was swaying the opinion of the middle 20% to ultimately tilt the balance.  Now, let’s be honest here… the ‘middle 20% people’ aren’t the brightest bulbs out there.  Just sayin’.  Politicians and the news media have been at the same games for as long as anyone can remember.

There is an enormous all-out battle being waged currently because I think  this could be an extinction-level event for the side that loses in November.  In my opinion, one of the two major political parties could very well cease to exist afterwards.  So, it’s a really big deal for the money-grubbing bastards who are in the current political power positions–but for the rest of us, well… we just gotta survive and thrive the best we can while our leaders do increasingly stupid stuff.

Remember, and this is a VERY important point, the political powers on each side right now are assuming that their associated base 40% is firmly locked in.  The entire battle being waged from now until just before the election will be epic pandering from both sides for persuasion and control of the center 20%.

Democrats only lost 8% of the black vote to Trump in 2016, for example.  Recent polls (pre-riot instigation) had black support for Trump at north of 30%.  So, now you understand what is going on there.  Democrats want their escaping slaves BACK on the plantation and if they have have to burn down their neighborhoods and kill a few in the process–well, so be it.  Trump’s side is not taking the bait the left wants, which is media images of uniformed white people oppressing innocent minority protestors.  It is likely infuriating for right-leaning people to see the unpunished lawlessness, but it is probably v-e-r-y good politics to just let it all burn and sit back and point the finger of blame where it belongs and ask why the folks who actually control the war zones politically aren’t doing anything about it.

If you are a 40%-er like me (most of us), then perhaps best just to sit back and ignore the breathless messaging flying back and forth between the opposing political sides.  None of that 20% targeted tripe will placate any of the 80% of us who have already decided how we will vote.  The Capital City scumbags are likely going to take us all for granted (as usual) until just before the election and then maybe we’ll get a bone thrown our way just to inspire us to turn out to vote.

I’ve been head down doing extremely productive things since all this silliness started and for the most part disengaging socially (on my terms, not theirs).  I can’t really control the environment that has been created by the warring powers–but I CAN optimize my exploitation of opportunity to do some positive things I didn’t have time to tackle before.  I haven’t been answering many emails during this intense productivity period–so please don’t take it personally if you sent me something and haven’t heard back.

As for propaganda management–I have an app called Block Site that prevents my browser from links redirecting me to the known propaganda outlets.  If I inadvertently get to a site where dumb stuff is being pushed, I just block it.  Funny thing is, there aren’t many news sites left that aren’t blocked.  The app saves me a ton of time and keeps me from getting worked up about the intense assault on logic, reason, and morality.  My tuning OUT is exactly the OPPOSITE of what the opposition wants… which is to simultaneously agitate and inflame the 20% simpletons–and to demoralize the opposing 40%.

My strategy?  I just laugh at ’em and move on to doing something fun, interesting, and/or productive.  Life’s too short to get sucked into any of that contrived silliness.

That’s my personal take on it, since several of you asked.










Market Update

As we approach the end of the trading week and also the end of the trading month. let’s take a quick peek at the overall market structure here…



The highlighted area of the Stops and Targets analysis of the S&P 500 Futures above sums it all up nicely.  An intermediate bull market is in effect above that timeframe’s range support, and bulls are currently all-good above short-term trend support currently at 2965.50.  All stop/reverse lines are currently green.


Let’s take a quick swing through the charts starting from monthly bars and zooming in ultimately to the daily bars…


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The chart above shows monthly bars, which roughly correlate to Stops and Target’s long-term timeframe.

You can plainly see the stop sweep/reversal that happened under 2319.50 –and we can also see the two successive higher lows and higher highs, which paints a bullish trending sequence.

I have drawn in two possible channels where we will ultimate get some clarity on a sustained long-term move going forward.  The dashed red channel shows a potential bearish path and the dashed green shows the bullish option.

It is still too soon to ascertain which way the February/March crash will ultimately resolve…but those channels are the two most likely long-term scenarios.  If the rally underway is just the first secular bear market rally, then we would expect the right shoulder of an eventual ‘M’ pattern to form at or below that top rail of the descending dashed red channel.  On the other hand–if the two-month decline is ultimately erased with new all-time highs then the dashed green channel will be the most likely new restraint.

It generally takes a while for these things to resolve themselves–so we just roll with it as it all unfolds.  The big takeaway is to watch the consecutive monthly bar sequences in all timeframes.  Right now, long-term bulls and bears are tied at 2-2 since the February all-time high.  Bulls have some very nice gains rolled up since the bottom–but my advice is to keep those trailing stops tight as the vertical ascent off the powerful rise could be testing the limits of gravity a bit, at present.  First sign of weakness would likely come in the form of a range top pullback that is later confirmed by a break under short term trend support–but until that transpires, the bullish trend change at 2965 is the hot long-term hand with trailing initial protective stops moved up under the last higher monthly bar low, which in a few days will move to 2760.25.



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The chart above shows weekly bars, which correlate to the intermediate timeframe at Stops and Targets.  The last higher completed 4-bar pivot low stop sweep/reversal (shaded in green and marked 10 on the chart above) figures prominently in the analysis here.  That point was the 10th and most recent installment of the Weekly Bar Paradigm that I have been pointing out here since the 2009 bottom.  The pros, of course, targeted the stops under that line as per their usual modus operandi–tagged confirmed support at 2196 and then have rallied back strongly ever since.  That point serves as the anchor for the bullish dashed green trident channel and it also serves as the first trendline point of the descending bottom rail of the dashed red parallel channel.

That continued efficacy of that weekly bar paradigm is what is currently being tested.  The last higher weekly 4-bar pivot happened at 2846.50.  The outcome of the current stop sweep/reversal around that line is what we are waiting to see resolved.  If price can continue to rally higher and sustains above that line then we will have point number 11 in the bag in the sequence that has been in play since 2009.  However, if price is unable to ultimately sustain above that line and we start to see a sequence of lower highs build–then the marvelous secular bullish trading paradigm will have finally played itself out.  Stay tuned as we await the ultimate resolution to that question.



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The chart above shows the daily bars and has all three ranges superimposed as shaded rectangles.  The intermediate and monthly bar ranges will update at the close of the trading week (and month) tomorrow.  The new ranges for long-term and intermediate-term will be equal to the bar high and bar low of the monthly and weekly bars respectively at the close tomorrow.

The next major targets above are an open gap at 3103.50 and then a strong band of confirmed resistance between 3169.75 and 3201.50.  First sign of potential trouble starting on a pullback would be a cross below the trending short-term range low (currently at 2965.50.

The number of single digit stocks is somewhat alarming.  There are currently just shy of 700 tracked equities that are trading below $10/share and there are about 80 trading under $1/share.  That is a bit sad since we know that many of those companies won’t ultimately make it.  America is going to need a new renaissance of growth after this economic wildfire has cleared the weakest members of the old growth forest.    It can happen, of course, but first we will need to similarly clear the stupidity and incompetence from the halls of government…of which I am decidedly less optimistic.  Unfortunately, not one of those folks has lost even a single penny of pay or benefits in the past several months so they feel almost zero pain of consequence.  Something dramatic is going to need to happen to save the Republic.  Otherwise, we are all simply whistling past the graveyard as capitalists.

This pandemic (or ‘dumb-panic’) silliness has provided a rare opportunity for me to unplug and completely tune out for an extended period of time as I simultaneously am working on two major projects that require absolute concentration and mental focus on my part.  It’s been a very productive month for me.

Really looking forward to watching the Space X launch on Saturday.  If that goes successfully, it could mark a huge watershed POSITIVE moment in the American psyche.  There are many folks out there, however, that really want to see America fail.  I hope the security is tight and that the launch and eventual recovery is flawless.  That launch is a potential market-moving news event over the weekend.  Personally, I would love to see young people become enamored with real hard science again.  It is high time, in my opinion, for social media driven depravity and pseudo science corruption to be swept into the dustbin of forgettable history.  We are nearing a key decision point on what lies ahead–I can sense it coming, though I have no idea what it will be.  The markets will lead the news and noise, as always.

Have a great weekend everyone!

…my .02


Market Update

In my last post I pointed out the resistance band located between 2846.50 and 2952.75 and explained why those resistance levels were important going forward…


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The Weekly Bar Paradigm stop sweep/reversal line is located at 2846.50 (see the dashed blue horizontal line on the chart above).  We will know with absolute certainty when the amazing secular bull market that has been stampeding since 2009 has finally ended when the market is unable to rally and ultimately hold above the last higher weekly 4-bar pivot low.   The last higher weekly 4-bar pivot low was at 2846.50.

Note that if/when we start building  a trend of lower weekly 4-bar pivot highs then we will officially be in a new secular bear market.  I have no way of knowing how this ultimately will play out going forward–but that line is only the 11th occurrence of a long-term entry strategy that has worked brilliantly for the past 11 years –> so we’ll continue to keep a very close eye on it going forward.

This morning the market filled an extremely important open gap at 2952.75, which is the top part of the resistance range I pointed out –> so this is that point of reckoning that I ranted about in my last post.  The S&P Futures traders love to fill open gaps.  You can see what I mean by observing the previous bearish gaps colored magenta and the previous bullish gaps colored cyan on the chart above.  As a recent point of reference–note that the bottom of the powerful thrust down from the top filled an open gap at 2252.50 before turning and burning back northward in a scorching bear market rally that is now six weeks old. 

This morning we hit the next major higher gap and once it filled the sellers immediately came in.  There is one more open bearish gap way up at 3328.  That is exactly where the pros gapped and trapped the bulls on an opening rout back in February.  The most elegant solution for gap traders would be an expectation of a trip back down to 2482.75 followed by a leg back up trying to ultimately fill 3328. That is one of many scenarios that could play out.

Much damage has been done to this market and when one looks at what it will take to get back to the point where that upper gap gets filled–well, clearly some serious work will have to be done and usually that takes time–though a couple trillion dollars being injected to juice the markets could certainly help.

The easier path for the market in the long-term would usually be down since the long-term timeframe is trending bearish under 2965  (starting tonight at the close unless the market trades higher than 2965 today).  However, if price can hold near the top of the current monthly bar today then there is a possibility for the market to be moved above the previous month’s high in the coming trading month, which would be a long-term trend reversal to bullish!

So, do you now see what I mean about an upcoming point of reckoning?

The pros love to set up these win-win situations for themselves in advance of an upcoming major news event.  That event could be the reopening of the economy starting in May for a bullish resolution higher.  It could also be something much more ominous that we can’t yet see coming–like an escalation in the thus-far undeclared US war with China, for example.  So far, that war is being fought economically, but these are the exact sort of historical environments where global conflagrations can erupt.  If not that, then something else ominous that could give an excuse to push the market lower in the coming month.



click image to enlarge


The chart above shows monthly bars, which correspond to the long-term timeframe at Stops and Targets.  Today is the last day of the trading month for April.  The April monthly bar (an ‘inside bar’ is where the low is higher than the previous month and the high is lower) will go from live to static at the close today and the range envelope numbers will update accordingly across all symbols.

The black box trading algorithms that focus on digesting monthly bar data will have fresh levels to pursue starting tonight when those reference points are updated…

For example:  the monthly bar range for the S&P 500 Futures (ES) will change from the current 21743125.74 to… 2424.752965 (unless one side of the current April range is exceeded today).  For the pros, that means counter-trend long-term profit stops on the bullish side will be advanced to 2424.75 to lock in bear market rally gains from the 2174 low.  That also means that the trend-following stop for bearish trades will be moved lower to 2965 to lock in gains on the short side from 3125.75



When I read the range envelopes above, I would say to anyone who asked my opinion… we are currently in a short-term pullback below 2959.75.  The intermediate range would also generate a counter-trend pullback alert if price were to trade below yesterday’s breakout at 2875.50.  That is all in the context of a long-term bear market rally that started at 2174 on 01-Apr-20.

So, basically the pullback I predicted at the gap fill has started and it remains to be seen how deep that pullback goes.  It’s still technically all good for bulls–especially if price climbs back above 2959.75  but bears could start to get rolling if price were to drop below 2875.50–and especially if the short-term trend were to flip on a bigger move below 2860.75.

Let’s see how this day goes and then more importantly what happens at the start of the new trading month tomorrow.  Head’s up here.  Everything is lined up nicely for a possible nudge one way or the other from the pros.

…my .02