Options Rollover Day

Futures Options have now rolled over from the September 2019 to December 2019 contract with a difference of +1.75 points from ESU19 (September) to ESZ19 (December).

All previous chart numbers have been adjusted to reflect the new contract pricing—so, for example, the Intermediate Term stop/reverse line from the expiring September contract at 2939.75 now becomes 2941.50, and so forth.

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I have included my updated Daily Bar/Range chart above to provide a visual confirmation for what Stops and Targets is saying in the screenshot at the top of this post….

We are still riding the major parallel channel bottom bounce from August 6th (see the blue arrow on the chart above), and the S&P 500 Futures have just hit resistance at the top of the current Long-Term range envelope at 3016.

We will see what happens at this resistance touch here at 3016, which will initially trigger profit-taking from the black box algorithms, but all trends are up > the Short-Term Stop/Reverse Line, which is currently sitting at 2973.75.  A future move below that line, of course, would start to flip momentum bearish, with the Long-Term and Intermediate Stop/Reverse Lines sitting beneath at 2957.25 and 2941.50 respectively as downside targets once a pullback begins.

If bulls can power through profit-taking resistance at 3016, the next major target higher would be the all-time high at 3031.25

As always, there is a huge resting trove of buy-to-cover stops from bears, resting just above, waiting to be harvested.  Those stops represent guaranteed buyers for the pros on the other sides of their trades–until such time as those resting stops are actually owned by the pros.  We usually know precisely when the pros flip sides using Stops and Targets’ Top Spotters as our canary in the coal mine.  So far, we have not seen any indication of unusual Index, Futures, and Russell 3000 Spotter Signals.

 

<rant on/>

As much as the globalists would love to crash the market in an attempt to help their side in a continued all-out attack on the current administration, President Trump’s economic advisors have brilliantly trapped globalist ‘elites’ (laughing here) into a checkmate situation.  After all, the entire point of pushing so hard for global socialism is to concentrate immense wealth in the hands of a very tiny group of individuals.  As a result of clever maneuvering by Presidents Trump, using tariff policies, these folks are now locked into a lose-lose conundrum…

The source of their power is wealth.  If they crash the market, then they lose their wealth, which diminishes their power.  See how that works?  😎

Hey China… how’s that whole anti-American thing going these days for you?  Less money for China, primarily as a result of Trump’s crippling sanctions (which are completely out-of-reach from the filthy-dirty foreign operatives embedded in our government) means far less obscene piles of excess capital available to finance myriad global schemes to undermine the USA from any and every angle.  When the Chinese hard currency reserves eventually dry up, the Chinese people might just decide one day that they have had quite enough of their current ‘leaders’.  The entire Chinese economy will inevitably collapse once they are no longer able to wantonly steal from the USA.  As Margaret Thatcher famously said,  “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.”

This is an absolutely fascinating period in history, and Donald Trump could ultimately turn out to be one of the most consequential world leaders of all time!

The globalists won’t go down without a fight, however, and we have been witnessing them throw absolutely everything and everyone they have at this guy for the past 966 days trying to desperately stop him from dismantling their long-running Orwellian schemes of global destruction and subjugation (for all but themselves, of course).

Love him or hate him, anyone with an IQ above room temperature simply has to be impressed with President Tump’s tenacity and resiliency under constant and relentless fire.  This incredible man, and his top key advisors, don’t even accept a salary for their tireless work under such brutal conditions!  They are America First Patriots who simply can’t be bribed (like many in the pathetic US Congress, for example) and the globalists seem powerless to stop what is coming.

The teeny-tiny group of globalists are clearly in an all-out panic, and so we normal folks have to stay diligent in protecting ourselves from their reflexive spasms.

I think it is amazing (and hilarious) to watch the globalist operatives being one-by-one systematically exposed, only to self-immolate after being outed.  For example, The (Fake) News and Noise is and always has been pure propaganda.  Trump, adroitly, has forever exposed them and they will never again be able to influence as they once did.  President Trump clearly realizes that the media, along with corrupt politicians and judges, are the front-line foot soldiers of the enemy–and he is dealing with them accordingly, and effectively.  Once the front line pawns have been neutralized, then the slow wheels of justice can start reeling in the tiny group of actual instigators, who are currently quivering in fear behind the curtains.

I predicted that Donald Trump would be President immediately after his announced candidacy.  For fun, I am going to again predict a future political outcome, with just one caveat…  If rampant voter fraud can be contained, the upcoming 2020 election is going to be eerily similar in outcome to the 1980 one.  This is going to be a blowout of epic proportions.  If that happens, we are going to have some great years directly ahead of us during the second term of his Presidency.  The Reagan Era was great for nearly everyone… but the Trump Era, by contrast, is going to be simply amazing!  You’ll see.

I am certainly not saying there will not be some significant bumps in the road ahead, but once these vile globalist bastards are finally dealt with, it is going to be a much better world for all.

</rant off>

 

The Stops and Targets Stop/Reverse Lines will tell the tale going forward, and we are all good on the bullish side above the Short-Term line, which is currently at 2973.75

…my .02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Update

 

Following up from my last ‘head’s up’ post (bounce alert at the parallel channel bottom at ES 2775.75)…

We are now into the fourth poke above the key resistance level I pointed out last time at 2914.50.  The market has been stalled here as the pros have likely been diffusing the options premium exposure they had going into last Friday’s monthly expiration (August contracts).  That event is in the rearview mirror now, so it’s time again to start preparing for what is ahead.

 

Let’s take a peek at what Stops and Targets has to say and compare my daily bar/range chart above to what we see over there…

 

(FYI:  My daily bar/range chart at the top of this post shows the same three timeframes (LT, IT, ST) along with the associated ranges and stop/reverse lines.)

 

The way I ingest the information from Stops and Targets is to look first at the Stop/Reverse Lines chart, (which is always selected by default, alongside the summary tab, when any new symbol is entered)…

 

A quick glance at the chart for the S&P 500 Futures (symbol ES) shows me LT and IT are currently down, and ST up–by just noting the color of the stop/reverse lines.

Those same stop/reverse lines take the mystery out of momentum regardless of whether the timeframe is trending or rangebound.

The three range envelopes are shown on the Stops and Targets chart as dashed gold lines.  I can quickly see that the current price is trading below the bottom of the LT range (2955.50), rangebound inside the IT, and is trending ST bullish above the range bottom.  A move below that line would flip the ST trend to bearish.

So ‘head’s up’ right here at 2904.25

 

Now that I have the ‘Big Picture’ framework established from a glance at the chart, next up for me is to glean the finer details by looking at the summary tab details…

 

 

I start by reading the Summary overview tab (which is always selected by default)…

 E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Option is rated BULL 1, the first stage of a new uptrend progression in an extended long-term bear market. Although the short-term trend has turned up and is mildly bullish above 2,904.25, the long-term and intermediate trends remain bearish. The line that must be exceeded to move to the next level of bullishness is intermediate trend resistance at 2,940.75. In a continuing long-term bear market, sellers will typically step in at or near that number–but in a strong rally that resistance will eventually break as new buyers expecting higher prices emerge.

 

I next take a glance at the range envelopes chart at the top of the page…

The screen capture above tells the current market tale well…

Starting with the arrows to the left of each range envelope we can see from the that there was a bearish trend change at 2955.50 which happened on 01-Aug-19.  The intermediate symbol indicates ‘rangebound with a bearish bias’ (below the IT stop/reverse line).  The symbol indicates that the short-term timeframe is trending bullish above the 2904.25 range bottom.

 

This market has stalled and is likely coiling for a breakout ahead and the weekly range will determine which way we go from here…

 

 

Once the market is closed today, the weekly range will be determined by the high and low of this past week.  If the current range holds, those intermediate range confines will be 2892.50 to 2939.75

The current weekly bar is an ‘inside bar’, which means both the high and low are constrained inside of the prior week’s range.

An eventual pop above intermediate resistance could lead to a run for new highs, but until/unless we get a breakout above that line the intermediate trend will begin to trend bearish with a succession of lower highs.

 

Weekly Paradigm Update…

We will need two more weeks before the next higher low is officially set on the amazing weekly paradigm that I have been pointing out regularly here since the 2009 lows.  If we can stay above the provisional line at 2775.75 that will become the new hard deck in two weeks.  Until then, the current Weekly Paradigm hard deck remains at 2372.75

 

This market appears to be coiling while waiting for something big to happen…

 

Could this be a clue?

Have a great weekend everyone!

…my .02

 

 

 

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Market Update

 

S&P 500 Futures are currently bouncing off the parallel channel bottom (see dashed blue lines on daily bar/range chart above).

As pointed out in yesterday’s post, the first key upside line to cross was yesterday’s low at 2820.50, which is the short-term range envelope bottom.  That line is located at the bottom of the short-term range, which is highlighted in bright yellow on my chart above…

 

A cross above the short-term range envelope bottom at 2820.50 has generated a range bottom counter-trend buy signal where the most aggressive bears started to take at least partial profits (see screen capture from Stops and Targets above).

Next upside counter-trend price target, if this bounce can stick, is confirmed resistance at 2914.50.

Head’s Up!  ES 2820.50 is the line in play today for the S&P 500 Futures.  Intraday price action is bullish above –> but reverts back to bearish below.

…my .02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Update

The Dow Jones Industrials opened the new week down -500 points on a futures-driven beat-down (S&P Futures opened down -50 points).  This move piggybacks the setup going into last week’s FOMC rate announcement.  This (in my opinion) is the pros doing their thing, post-FOMC, and so the game here is to figure out what they are targeting to the downside on this forced move lower.

The headlines blame this overnight beat-down on a counter-move by the communist Chinese to allow the Yuan to depreciate above 7 on the exchange ratio to the Dollar for the first time in a decade.  This is China’s retaliatory move to counteract President Trump’s devastating (to them) import tariff strategy (which is Great for US).  Key US exporters are leading today’s decline, of course, but if you are in the market to buy some cheap Chinese import junk, then the good news is your prices just dropped a bit.  Ultimately, however, the Chinese will lose this battle as America holds all the economic ‘Trump’ cards.  The Chinese continue to absorb the costs and effects of the transition, while the US continues to strengthens its economic base with increased domestic manufacturing.  It’s a brilliant strategy and is being executed flawlessly.

It was inevitable that the collapsing Bush(2)-Clinton-Obama era strategy to weaken America, which is now coming unwound with a Make America Great Again economic squeeze, would eventually create some panic in their circle of accomplices/associates (and bribe suppliers).  The global socialist strategy of impeaching/removing the outsider/disruptor (Trump) appears to have failed miserably, and so now we are seeing screeches and wild flagellations as the old ‘new word order’ (thanks Bush I) continues to come unwound.  Good riddance, I say, but choking off this abomination won’t come easy and these people will stop at nothing in their attempts to maintain a rapidly-slipping grasp on their horrific vision of global socialism/communism–> where a tiny cabal of global overlords prospers (them) while everyone else (us) suffers.

 

So, let’s take another look at where we are, technically, after losing bullish support in all three timeframes…

 

 

Stops and Targets shows a Bear 4 rating for the S&P 500 Futures and 2,955.50 is long-term resistance.

Next S&T major target lower is 2,732.75, which is nearly 5% lower as I write.

So, here is how the pros likely will trade this decline (in my opinion)…

The key numbers going forward will be the previous day’s low and high.  In a decline, the first counter-trend buy will come on a cross back above the previous daily bar low.  That might be unlikely to happen today (2,913.50 was Friday’s low), but if not today, then it will eventually happen on a subsequent day.  A cross back above the previous day’s low (in a downtrend) is where the most aggressive bears will start to cover at least partial profits.

If/when we get a day where a rally crosses back above the previous day’s high, then the most aggressive bears will be getting completely out of short positions and the momentum bulls will jump in on the trend change to double up buying volume.

So, remember to watch the current short-term range envelope numbers for those eventual crossovers for a clue when the reversal starts.  Reread the first sentence of this paragraph and remember that–it’s very important from this configuration!

This ‘feels’ like a forced/planned correction to me since there were no unanimous spotter signals triggered at the top, but it’s fully-bearish here until it ain’t and the previous day’s low is the first line that must be crossed to potentially start to flip the momentum.

Remember also that our Weekly Bar Paradigm ‘hard deck’ is currently sitting at 2,732.75, so that’s the edge of the wiggle room for a significant correction before this pullback/decline potentially turns into something much more ominous.

The previous bullish trend change numbers after the last major pullback were at: 2,845.25 (intermediate), 2,767.75 (short-term), and 2,722.50 (long-term).  Those are the full trend reversal/breakout retest targets lower.

A big fist bump here to all my bearish friends who caught this downdraft entry from the setup in my last post at 3,001.50!  Keep an eye on the short-term (daily bar) range envelope as explained above.

…my .02

 

 

 

 

FOMC Day (and New Symbol Lists)

 

Today at 2 PM ET we will get the FOMC meeting announcement, followed by a press conference at 2:30 pm.  A rate cut of 25 basis points is expected.  This is also the last day of the month, so head’s up post-announcement for possible market antics from the pros.

This is also a good time to check on the current status of the broad market, using the S&P 500 Futures…

 

 

A quick glance at Stop/Reverse lines and Range Envelopes at stopsandtargets.com shows the S&P 500 Futures currently hovering near the short-term stop/reverse line at 3015.50 with intermediate support at 2972.50 and long-term support at 2848.50.

The short-term and long-term timeframes are both rangebound with a bullish bias and the intermediate timeframe is currently trending bullish above 2972.50.

 

Let’s take a closer look at each timeframe using my charts to correlate with Stops and Targets’ analysis…

 

 

The monthly bar chart above does a great job of summing up the Big Picture.  We can see the last higher monthly low occurred in April at 2848.50 and has been the epicenter of the games that have followed since…

In May, the pros started off by popping the last remaining bear stops above the April high and then viciously drove the market down beneath the April low (generating a long-term sell signal under that line) where the bulls were forced to capitulate at month’s end.  That was outside bar number one.

In June, the pros covered their May short trades and doubled the buying (to first cover shorts and then to re-accumulate long) and forced the market all the way back above the May high to again force bears who missed the turn at the counter-trend buy signal to capitulate.  That was outside bar number two in an extremely rare back-to-back configuration that I discussed extensively in my last post.

In July, the pros gapped the market up above the June high on the first day (and above key resistance dating back to September 0f 2018) and here we are on the last day of July waiting to see how it goes post-announcement and what final shape the bar will assume on the close today.

Typically, a gap and trap above key resistance leads to a breakout run to the upside–but this market has been anything but ‘typical’ recently, so that’s the reason for a little head’s up here–just in case.

Bottom line… it’s all good for the long-term bulls above last month’s high of 2969.25.  A break below would trigger a long-term counter-trend sell.

It seems highly unlikely that price would decline today below the current long-term stop/reverse line at 2848.50 and so if the monthly low at today’s bar close ends up higher than that line then we will see the long-term Stop/Reverse line move up to the July low tomorrow (currently at 2955.50).

 

Next, let’s zoom into the intermediate timeframe…

 

 

The weekly bar chart above shows us to be currently in the eighth bar of a sequence of higher weekly lows in a trending market that began with a Stops and Targets intermediate buy signal at 2845.25 on June 6th.

It’s all good for bulls with current profits locked in above last week’s low of 2972.50, which is Stops and Targets’ intermediate stop/reverse line, but watch out on a break below.

The weekly chart is also where I track the Weekly Bar Paradigm (WBP) that I have been pointing out with regularity here since the 2009 low.  Note that the most recent higher 4-bar weekly pivot low was created at 2372.75–> so that is the new ‘hard deck’ for WBP followers.  That amazing bullish paradigm that has been in play since 2009 will not officially end until we eventually see a break below that last higher pivot low that cannot be subsequently recaptured–and then is followed by a series of lower weekly highs (to start a weekly bar bearish paradigm).

*The last paradigm entry buy was at stop sweep/reversal under the previous pivot at 2616.50 which then bounced almost perfectly at the very long-term trendline in December of 2018 at 2326.50.   The trailing stop for that WBP entry is now advanced to to last higher pivot at 2372.75.

Pretty cool how all of that works, don’t you think?

 

And finally, let’s take a quick peek at the daily bars to put it all together…

 

 

The daily bar chart above shows all three timeframes with the range envelopes for each.

The short-term stop/reverse line at 3015.50 is set at yesterday’s low.  Note that yesterday we had an outside bar where the pros took the stops both above and below the prior days’ range.  They were getting set up in advance of today’s announcement, most likely.

If we were to see a negative reaction after today’s announcement then the first short-term sellers would come in on a break below 3001.50 (yesterday’s low).  First downside target would be old breakout resistance at 2965.25.  If the selling continued, then we would expect the short-term stops under 2914.50 to be the next target if things got r-e-a-l-l-y crazy (highly unlikely, but ya never know).

The more likely post-announcement scenario, of course, would be a continuation of the upside breakout, and if that happens there is no resistance above 3029.50 as the market would be creating new all-time highs.

So, let’s see what, if anything significant, happens after today’s FOMC hoopla.  As mentioned before, bulls are all good above the Stop/Reverse lines–but if we start to see significant selling then be careful–especially under 2972.50!

…my .02

 

 

*New Symbol Lists at Stops and Targets!

With the completion of the annual Russell Index Reconstitution there have been additions and deletions to the official list of symbols available for analysis.  For full details of which symbols were dropped and added and why, follow this link (it’s an interesting read):

https://www.ftserussell.com/because-markets-change-infographic

 

You can now Add New Symbols!

Stops and Targets has created a new custom symbol list that allows us to request the addition of new ticker symbols to be added to the analysis database.  Those non-Russell 3000 symbols will not be included in end of day analysis reports but they will be available for analysis and able to be added to custom Watchlist notifications.  (ticker symbols must be traded in US markets)

To request the addition of new symbols, send a message to me using the ‘Send Comments’ link and I will pass it along.